After a cool start to June, temperatures have been running 4-10°F above average over the last 10 days. The airmass was quite a bit more humid as well, with numerous “gully washers” across the state. Figure 1 shows 2-4 inches of rain fell across many southern counties, with a Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) observer in northern Scioto County reporting 5.23 inches for the week.
After a couple of cold fronts on Sunday and Monday, another weak cold front will drop south across the state on Tuesday. A widely scattered shower cannot be ruled out. Behind this front, even cooler air will settle in, with overnight lows Wednesday and Thursday expected to reach the mid-40s to low-50s and daytime highs mainly in the 70s with low humidity. Temperatures will warm a bit into the weekend, as the southerly flow will bring a return to more humid conditions and an increased chance of showers and storms. Overall, we are expecting light rain totals this week across the south, with 1-2” across northern Ohio (Fig. 2).
The latest NOAA/NWS/Climate Prediction Center outlook for the 6-10-day period (June 20 – 24) shows elevated probabilities of below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation (Fig. 3). Normal highs during the period should be 80-85°F, normal lows 60-65°F, with 1.00-1.15 inches of rain per week. The 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center also supports above-average precipitation over the next couple of weeks.