Weather Update

May began cooler and wetter than normal as expected. The week of May 5 will start cool but then starting May 7 we will turn warmer than normal. Temperatures will reach into the 70s north and 80s south by Wednesday and Thursday. Outside of scattered light showers and a few thunderstorms, rainfall will be quite limited through Thursday which should allow ground work to resume this week.
 
As we reach May 9-12, rain chances will increase with a storm system yielding slightly above normal temperatures with above normal rainfall. 
 
The week of May 12-18 will again see temperatures start cooler than normal but should bounce back toward May 18 to above normal.
 
The weather theme for May remains unchanged as overall temperatures will swing back and forth between below to above normal with periods of rain. The month still looks to start cool and finish warmer than normal. Averaging it out temperatures for May should not be too far from normal. 
 
Rainfall for May will be above normal though it appears with periods of dry and wet weather. The eastern corn and soybean belt should be wetter than normal for May while the western section normal or slightly drier than normal.
 
For the latest 16-day rainfall outlook for the corn, soybean and wheat belts from the National Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center please visit:http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ohrfc/HAS/images/NAEFS16day.pdf 
 
This 16-day rainfall outlook is the mean of multiple weather model runs or consensus. Normal rainfall is 1.5 to 2 inches for this time period.
 
The 8-14-day temperature outlook can be found here:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
 
We continue to track the consensus historic years of winter/spring of 1962-63, 1978-79, and 1993-94. The result of those years was corn 6% above trend line, soybeans 3% above trend line and wheat at trend line yields.
 

All indications are an El Nino may be forming in the Pacific Ocean. Based on years similar to Pacific Ocean water temperatures from this past winter to present and what is expected, the years closest to these include 1963, 1968, 1979, 1982, 1986 and 1997. The results for crop yields for corn were 5% above trend line, soybeans 6% above trend line and wheat 5% below trend line which are not much different than the best 3 analog years to this past winter. The bottom line is the climate patterns suggest decent yields this year but not as good as 2013 or as bad as 2012 but still likely above trend like except for wheat.

Crop Observation and Recommendation Network

C.O.R.N. Newsletter is a summary of crop observations, related information, and appropriate recommendations for Ohio crop producers and industry. C.O.R.N. Newsletter is produced by the Ohio State University Extension Agronomy Team, state specialists at The Ohio State University and the Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center (OARDC). C.O.R.N. Newsletter questions are directed to Extension and OARDC state specialists and associates at Ohio State.

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