It appears a cool low pressure will anchor over southeast Canada in June while a dome of very warm air will anchor over the southern U.S. This will leave the corn and soybean Midwest into the Ohio Valley in the target zone which will bring a more active pattern to the region.
Temperatures will turn 1-2 degrees cooler than normal for the first half of June after a warmer than average finish to May. Rainfall will average 2-3 inches for the first half of June across Ohio with the range from 1-4 inches. This would be considered above normal.June will be slightly cooler and wetter than normal across most of Ohio (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov). There is a risk of severe storms this week mainly around the middle of the week of June 4. There is a risk of heavy rain and localized flooding the first half of June with the best chances over the southern half of the state. The chances for > 2-3 inches of rain is >60% across northern Ohio and >80% across southern Ohio (http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/produits_e.html).
Even though we dried out in many areas in late May, rain chances will increase in June so the threat for drought is rather low in June based on the latest weather and climate information. Soil moisture has dried in the top several inches in many areas of Ohio with pockets of too wet conditions. However, with increased rain chances across Ohio in June, soil moisture and river conditions should be okay. The latest outlooks can get found at the National Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ohrfc/WRO.shtml).