C.O.R.N. Newsletter: 2014-34
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It's Not Too Late to Plant Wheat…If the Weather Cooperates
Cool, wet weather and delayed soybean harvest may result in planting wheat late. Generally, the best time to plant wheat is the 10-day period starting the day after the fly-free-safe date. In northern Ohio, we are close to the end of that 10-day period. In central and southern Ohio, we still have about a week before the end of the 10-day period. When wheat is planted more than 10-days after the fly-free-safe date, there is an increased chance of reduced fall growth and reduced winter hardiness. The effect of planting date on wheat yield is shown in Figure 6-2 of the Ohio Agronomy Guide.
The optimum seeding rate is 1.2 to 1.6 million seeds per acre when planting during the first two weeks following the fly-free-safe date. As we enter three to four weeks after the fly-free-safe date, a seeding rate of 1.6 to 2.0 million seeds per acre is recommended.
There is still time to plant wheat, but the window is closing. Wheat planted 3-4 weeks after the fly-free-safe date can achieve the same yield as earlier planted wheat if freezing weather does not occur until late November or early December.
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Soybean Aphid Prediction for 2015
Two observations on soybean aphids surprised us in 2014. First is that we saw soybean aphids at all. Since 2001-when soybean aphids were first detected in Ohio-we have had aphid outbreaks every other year (i.e. in odd numbered years). But in 2014, soybean aphids could be easily found in most areas and, in a few fields, even reached economic threshold. Part of the saving grace was that the aphids came on late, and most soybeans made it to R6 before aphids reached threshold. Second is that aphids were not found in the typical northern sections of Ohio, but rather in the central part of the state. While it is tough to say if this "officially" broke the every other year pattern, more important is what might happen next year. Even without the 2014 observations, there would be a high likelihood of soybean aphids in 2015 based on the historical pattern. In addition, we have started to see soybean aphids on buckthorn, their overwintering host (see figure). It is still too early to know for sure, but it does seem to be setting up for soybean aphids to be present in 2015. Over the next few weeks, we will re-check buckthorn trees for the presence of soybean aphid eggs as well as triple check them in the spring of 2015 to confirm successful overwintering and egg hatch.
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Ohio Weather Outlook for October
We are now in transition season. We expect the rest of October to become more active with rain chances every 2-4 days. We will be in a battle zone between high pressure near the East Coast and low pressure near the central U.S. leaving Ohio and the Ohio Valley in the transition zone for stormy weather. Temperatures will swing from above to below to above normal with the overall trend close to normal for temperatures. Frost and freeze chances will be increasing but we are on track for about a normal frost and freeze season in October.
Rainfall:
We expect to see above normal rainfall for the rest of October. There is >80% chance of exceeding 2" of rain in the next two weeks over most of Ohio which is high for this time of the year. Normal rainfall is about an inch the next two weeks. This will increase pressure to get crops out of the fields along with muddy fields. The latest 16-day rainfall graphic for the region from the National Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center can be found here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ohrfc/HAS/images/NAEFS16day.pdf
Temperatures:
Temperatures should be about normal but with large swings. Normal highs are generally in the mid-60s and normal lows in the mid-40s. The latest two-week temperatures outlook can be found here: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
Frost and freeze:
The first frosts and/or freezes typically occur in the first half of October in the north and middle to later October in the south. We look to be about on track for this in the coming week. Some areas have already had frost conditions in the last few weeks.
Short-term outlook:
Rain chances are expected Tuesday Oct 7 with more rain chances especially southern Ohio later Thursday Oct. 9 into early Friday Oct. 10. Rain chances will come back about either late Sunday or early next week Oct. 12-15, 2014.
Crop Observation and Recommendation Network
C.O.R.N. Newsletter is a summary of crop observations, related information, and appropriate recommendations for Ohio crop producers and industry. C.O.R.N. Newsletter is produced by the Ohio State University Extension Agronomy Team, state specialists at The Ohio State University and the Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center (OARDC). C.O.R.N. Newsletter questions are directed to Extension and OARDC state specialists and associates at Ohio State.
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