We are now in transition season. We expect the rest of October to become more active with rain chances every 2-4 days. We will be in a battle zone between high pressure near the East Coast and low pressure near the central U.S. leaving Ohio and the Ohio Valley in the transition zone for stormy weather. Temperatures will swing from above to below to above normal with the overall trend close to normal for temperatures. Frost and freeze chances will be increasing but we are on track for about a normal frost and freeze season in October.
We expect to see above normal rainfall for the rest of October. There is >80% chance of exceeding 2" of rain in the next two weeks over most of Ohio which is high for this time of the year. Normal rainfall is about an inch the next two weeks. This will increase pressure to get crops out of the fields along with muddy fields. The latest 16-day rainfall graphic for the region from the National Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center can be found here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ohrfc/HAS/images/NAEFS16day.pdf
Temperatures should be about normal but with large swings. Normal highs are generally in the mid-60s and normal lows in the mid-40s. The latest two-week temperatures outlook can be found here: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
Frost and freeze:
The first frosts and/or freezes typically occur in the first half of October in the north and middle to later October in the south. We look to be about on track for this in the coming week. Some areas have already had frost conditions in the last few weeks.
Rain chances are expected Tuesday Oct 7 with more rain chances especially southern Ohio later Thursday Oct. 9 into early Friday Oct. 10. Rain chances will come back about either late Sunday or early next week Oct. 12-15, 2014.