November will go down as a top 10 coldest November most likely with drier than normal precipitation and snowier than normal.
If you look at the 10 coldest Novembers, the December to February period that follows is usually near normal temperatures and slightly wetter than normal precipitation but with a lot of changes and extreme within that period.
The big high pressure in Alaska that drove cold air into the U.S. is forecast to breakdown and be replaced by more typical low pressure. This will allow for a more westerly flow pattern into a good part of December meaning temperatures will be near to slightly above normal the next 3-4 weeks. At the same time, the dry northwest flow will be replaced by a more active pattern yield normal or slightly wetter than normal conditions in Ohio the next 3-4 weeks.
The official winter outlook by NOAA/NWS/CPC calls for equal chances for above, normal or below normal temperatures and slightly below normal precipitation.
In the shorter-range, expect colder than normal weather to return this week with limited precipitation except near Lake Erie. However, by the end of Thanksgiving weekend into the start of December, it will turn much warmer than normal with wetter weather moving in. High temperatures in the first several days of December will reach into the 50s with some 60s even possible.
After a drier finish to November the first week of November will turn wetter. For the latest 16-day average rainfall outlook go to the National Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center link at:
Normal rainfall is just over 1.5 inches for the 16-day period. For the latest NOAA/NWS U.S. climate model monthly temperature outlooks go to:
For the latest NOAA/NWS U.S. climate model monthly precipitation outlooks go to:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usPrece3Mon.html