Temperature RISK:
Temperatures will continue to be several degrees above normal into much of November. However, the real change comes with a wetter pattern as has been discussed for several weeks now. The drier pattern of the last few months is about to end for a while.
Storm RISK:
The first storm Oct. 27/28 will bring widespread 1 inch rain to Ohio with isolated totals of 2 inches. The next storm will arrive about Nov. 1 with another near 1 inch event possible. Another storm will arrive later in the first week or November.
Rain RISK:
Expect the wetter than normal pattern to last until at least mid-November before some drying returns. Rainfall through mid-November will average 2-4+ inches with normal being 1.25-1.75 inches. On average we should expect about twice the normal rainfall.
Snow RISK:
With the warmer than normal temperatures, little if any snow is expected the next several weeks.
Freeze RISK:
The risk for freezes remains at or below normal the next several weeks. We will see a few freezes but they will be limited in nature.
Wind RISK:
The risk for autumn wind storms which has been limited to this point will increase the next 1-2 weeks with plenty of energy coming from the Pacific Ocean.
Winter Outlook:
All indications are for a warmer than normal winter with precipitation near or slightly below normal.
El Nino RISK:
A major El Nino will continue into winter and linger into spring. Early indications are for normal or drier than normal spring.
You can get the latest 16-day rainfall outlook from the NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center at: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ohrfc/HAS/images/NAEFS16day.pdf