Temperatures will continue to be several degrees above normal into much of November. However, the real change comes with a wetter pattern as has been discussed for several weeks now. The drier pattern of the last few months is about to end for a while.
The first storm Oct. 27/28 will bring widespread 1 inch rain to Ohio with isolated totals of 2 inches. The next storm will arrive about Nov. 1 with another near 1 inch event possible. Another storm will arrive later in the first week or November.
Expect the wetter than normal pattern to last until at least mid-November before some drying returns. Rainfall through mid-November will average 2-4+ inches with normal being 1.25-1.75 inches. On average we should expect about twice the normal rainfall.
With the warmer than normal temperatures, little if any snow is expected the next several weeks.
The risk for freezes remains at or below normal the next several weeks. We will see a few freezes but they will be limited in nature.
The risk for autumn wind storms which has been limited to this point will increase the next 1-2 weeks with plenty of energy coming from the Pacific Ocean.
All indications are for a warmer than normal winter with precipitation near or slightly below normal.
El Nino RISK:
A major El Nino will continue into winter and linger into spring. Early indications are for normal or drier than normal spring.
You can get the latest 16-day rainfall outlook from the NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center at: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ohrfc/HAS/images/NAEFS16day.pdf