The tropics are a big player in the weather this time of the year. The outflow from tropical systems creates high and low pressures further north in our region this time of the year and modifies weather patterns. Saying all that, this is an active year for the United States which we have not seen for about a decade. This all translates to uncertainty in our September weather and climate pattern for Ohio and surrounding areas.
All eyes are on Hurricane Irma and the direct or indirect impacts to the United States and surrounding areas.
September will be cooler than normal for the first three weeks of the month with a turn to warmer than normal for the last week of September. Rainfall now appears to start below normal then go above normal. The wettest areas appear to be southern and eastern areas of the state. There is a chance the northwest part of the state is normal to drier than normal even though much of the state is normal to wetter than normal in September. It will be driven by tropical system outcomes.
October into November still look on track to be warmer and wetter than normal with widespread frosts arriving at normal to a week later than normal for most areas.
The latest 16 day rainfall can be seen in the image below. It shows 1-2 inches common across the state with the lightest to the northwest and heaviest to the south and east areas.