We have had a few weeks of colder and drier overall weather after the very warm start to October. We expect dry weather through this Thursday except for a few lake effect showers in northeast Ohio about the middle of the week.
Then the pattern will change. Temperatures will likely remain chilly for the rest of the month but we will gradually wet up again. This week will be the best conditions for harvest or any planting of wheat still needed. We expect some showers to return from Friday into early next week with a more potent system later next week. There could be a few snowflakes mixed in this weekend but with marginal temperatures and the warm Lake Erie, it should be mainly rain showers.
Also, northeast Ohio remains somewhat protected from a hard freeze right now with a warm Lake Erie and preferred northwest winds.
The outlook for November calls for near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.
The outlook for December calls for near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.
Looking further ahead, a minor El Nino is forecast for this winter but confidence in the details is rather low. This leads to low to moderate confidence in the outlooks. Right now winter is shaping up to be near normal temperatures and slightly below normal precipitation. Looking into next spring for planting season it looks like below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall.
For the next two weeks, rainfall will increase to to 1-2 inches. Normal is 1-1.25 inches for two weeks on average, see attached NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Center Rainfall map. You can see this map updated all the time by visiting the OHRFC briefing pages at https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/Briefings . The briefing pages include our flood, drought and seasonal briefings.