C.O.R.N. Newsletter: 2020-14
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Warmer Weather, Finally!
As recently as last Wednesday and Thursday (May 13-14), some locations across Ohio had morning lows dipping down to near or below freezing (Figure 1). This follows numerous frost and freeze events since mid-April that led to reports of damage to vegetables, tree fruit, and certain grape varieties, and some minor leaf-tip damage to wheat and alfalfa. For more information on recent climate conditions, check out the weekly Hydro-Climate Assessment from the State Climate Office of Ohio.
Figure 1: Morning lows on left) May 13, 2020 and right) May 14, 2020. Figures courtesy of the Midwest Regional Climate Center (https://mrcc.illinois.edu).
But it seems as though we have turned a corner on this cool weather; after all, June is fast approaching and there is still some work to be done. Will the weather cooperate?
Unfortunately, we have a slow-moving system and weak cold front this week that is already providing a focal point for numerous showers and storms across the state. Tropical Storm Arthur, moving up the U.S. east coast, is slowing the progression of this system, with expected lingering showers throughout the week across the region. Heavy rain and some flooding are possible, especially over portions of western and southern Ohio, where 2-4 inches of rain are expected with locally heavier amounts (Figure 2). This is well above the 1 inch per week we typically see this time of year. Lighter amounts are forecast for northeast Ohio.
Figure 2: Forecast precipitation for the next 7 days. Valid from 8am Monday May 18, 2020 through 8 am Monday May 25, 2020. Figure from the Weather Prediction Center https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/).
Temperatures are likely to cool a bit behind the cold front on Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs below average in the 50s and 60s. A moderating trend in temperatures is likely by the weekend, with highs returning to the 70s and 80s. This may also bring some scattered thunderstorm activity.
The latest NOAA/NWS/Climate Prediction Center outlook for the 6-10 day period (May 24-28) shows a strong likelihood for above average temperatures with slightly elevated probability for above average precipitation (Figure 3). Normal highs during the period should be in the low to mid-70s (north to south) with overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s and about 0.9-1.10” of precipitation per week. The 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center reflects well above average precipitation over the next couple of weeks, largely a reflection of this week’s wet weather.
Figure 3: Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Outlook valid for May 24-28, 2020 for left) temperatures and right) precipitation. Colors represent the probability of below, normal, or above normal conditions.
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Scab Risk Low, but Keep Your Eyes on Leaf Diseases
According to the FHB forecasting system, the risk for head scab continues to be low across the state of Ohio, for wheat flowering (or barley heading) today, May 18. In spite of the wet weather we have had, it has been very cold over the last week to 10 days. Cold temperatures between heading and flowering usually reduce the risk for scab, as the disease develops best under warm, wet, or humid conditions. However, you must continue to be vigilant as the crop in the northern half of the state approach heading and anthesis. If it continues to rain and stays wet and humid over the next few weeks, the risk for scab and vomitoxin will increase as the temperature increases. Be prepared to treat fields with Prosaro, Caramba, or Miravis Ace. Click on this link for more details on fungicide application for head scab control: https://agcrops.osu.edu/newsletter/corn-newsletter/2020-13/managing-head-scab-fungicides-qa
While scab is not yet a concern, either because it is too early, or because it has been too cold, current conditions do favor leaf diseases such as Septoria leaf spot and powdery mildew. Both have been reported on the lower leaves of susceptible varieties, and will continue to spread up the plant if it stays cool and wet. In addition, persistent rainfall and warmer temperatures over the next few weeks will not only increase the risk for scab, but will also increase the spread and severity of other diseases such Stagonospora leaf and glume blotch. All of these diseases can reduce grain yield and quality, if flag leaves and heads are severely damaged before grain fill is complete. Continue to walk fields and look for leaf diseases. If the variety is susceptible, an early fungicide application may be needed to keep leaf diseases in check. Otherwise, an application (of Prosaro, Caramba or Miravis Ace) at or shortly after flowering (at or shortly after heading in barley) for scab control will also provide effective control of leaf diseases.
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Field Estimations of Alfalfa Fiber Content
Ohio has seen its 5th warmest winter on record but spring temperatures across the state have consistently been 2-6° F below long-term averages. Climatic variations every year make it difficult to know the exact date to determine harvest of our first alfalfa crop. Research has shown % Neutral Detergent Fiber (NDF) can vary up to 10 units on the same calendar day from one year to the next, therefore making harvest decisions based on calendar date is unreliable. Many producers also base harvest decisions primarily on alfalfa maturity. Variable weather conditions affect the rate of bud and flower development in alfalfa, thus relying solely on maturity can be misleading.
The best method to determine alfalfa (NDF) is by traditional wet chemistry analysis; however, these traditional methods for determining %NDF are often too time consuming when a rapid estimation of NDF is needed for making harvest decisions. In the spring, average alfalfa NDF increases about 5 percentage units each week.
Years ago, the University of Wisconsin developed a method to estimate %NDF in the field. This method is referred to as PEAQ, Predicative Equations for Alfalfa Quality. This method uses alfalfa height and maturity to estimate NDF of a standing alfalfa crop. Instructions on how to estimate NDF in pure alfalfa stands can be found here: https://forages.osu.edu/sites/forages/files/imce/Estimate%20Alfalfa%20NDF.pdf
Here is a short video describing the method:
PEAQ was developed for clean pure alfalfa stands. Using this method to estimate NDF of weedy alfalfa or grass-alfalfa stands, will be inaccurate. Cornell University has developed a method to estimate forage NDF for grass-alfalfa mixtures. This method is described here http://blogs.cornell.edu/ccefieldcropnews/2016/05/10/new-alfalfa-grass-ndf-estimation-tool-for-smart-phones/.
Ohio’s cold spring affected alfalfa development across the state. Alfalfa NDF is approximately 4.3 to 10 percentage units behind where development was last year. Over the next few weeks we will be monitoring and reporting alfalfa %NDF across the state.
Even though it is typical to see alfalfa jump 5 NDF units in a week’s time during spring development, the last two weeks across Ohio has shown a change of only 0.8 to 3.4 units of NDF. Below are NDF estimates from last two weeks.
Table 1. Alfalfa Average % NDF for Three Counties in Ohio (Second Week of May)
Date
Location
Average % NDF
Stage
5/13/20
Clark County
30.9
Vegetative
5/7/20
Pike County
31.2
Vegetative
5/13/20
Stark County
30.3
Vegetative
Table 2. Alfalfa Average %NDF for Five Counties in Ohio (Third Week of May)
Date
Location
Average % NDF
Stage
5/17/20
Auglaize
29.6
Vegetative
5/18/20
Clark County
34.3
Vegetative/ Early bud
5/18/20
Licking
34
Vegetative
5/15/20
Pike County
32
Vegetative
5/18/20
Stark County
31.3
Vegetative
Warmer weather and moisture will continue to move alfalfa NDF along quickly. Alfalfa producers in southern regions of Ohio should start thinking about harvesting alfalfa stands soon if the goal is to hit a forage NDF of 40% for high quality alf
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Alfalfa Weevil Update
Peak alfalfa weevil feeding damage occurs between 325 and 575 heat units (based on accumulation of heat units from January 1 with a base of 48°F). All monitored locations are now in or close to this range except Ashtabula. We recommend alfalfa weevil scouting as regular part of your program. For more details on alfalfa weevil scouting and thresholds please see our April 13 article https://agcrops.osu.edu/newsletter/corn-newsletter/2020-09/alfalfa-weevil-%E2%80%93-it%E2%80%99s-closer-you-think
Accumulated growing degree days (base 48°F sine calculation method) for January 1-May 17, 2020 at several CFAES Ag Weather System (https://www.oardc.ohio-state.edu/weather1/) locations and additional NOAA stations around Ohio.
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Ohio Corn, Soybean and Wheat Enterprise Budgets - Projected Returns for 2020
COVID-19 has created an unusual situation that has negatively affected crop prices and lowered certain crop input costs. Many inputs for the 2020 production year were purchased or the prices/costs were locked in prior to the spread of this novel coronavirus. Some costs have been recently affected or may yet be affected. Lower fuel costs may allow for lower costs for some compared to what current budgets indicate.
Production costs for Ohio field crops are forecast to be largely unchanged from last year with lower fertilizer expenses offset by slight increases in some other costs. Variable costs for corn in Ohio for 2020 are projected to range from $359 to $452 per acre depending on land productivity. Variable costs for 2020 Ohio soybeans are projected to range from $201 to $223 per acre. Wheat variable expenses for 2020 are projected to range from $162 to $198 per acre.
Returns will likely be low to negative for many producers depending on price movement throughout the rest of the year. Grain prices used as assumptions in the 2020 crop enterprise budgets are $3.20/bushel for corn, $8.30/bushel for soybeans and $5.10/bushel for wheat. Projected returns above variable costs (contribution margin) range from $109 to $240 per acre for corn and $179 to $337 per acre for soybeans. Projected returns above variable costs for wheat range from $152 to $262 per acre.
Return to Land is a measure calculated to assist in land rental and purchase decision making. The measure is calculated by starting with total receipts or revenue from the crop and subtracting all expenses except the land expense. Returns to Land for Ohio corn (Total receipts minus total costs except land cost) are projected to range from -$48 to $72 per acre in 2020 depending on land production capabilities. Returns to land for Ohio soybeans are expected to range from $65 to $214 per acre depending on land production capabilities. Returns to land for wheat (not including straw or double-crop returns) are projected to range from $70 per acre to $173 per acre.
Total costs projected for trend line corn production in Ohio are estimated to be $759 per acre. This includes all variable costs as well as fixed costs (or overhead if you prefer) including machinery, labor, management and land costs. Fixed machinery costs of $75 per acre include depreciation, interest, insurance and housing. A land charge of $187 per acre is based on data from the Western Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents Survey Summary. Labor and management costs combined are calculated at $67 per acre. Details of budget assumptions and numbers can be found in footnotes included in each budget.
Total costs projected for trend line soybean production in Ohio are estimated to be $517 per acre. (Fixed machinery costs: $59 per acre, land charge: $187 per acre, labor and management costs combined: $46 per acre.)
Total costs projected for trend line wheat production in Ohio are estimated to be $452 per acre. (Fixed machinery costs: $34 per acre, land charge: $187 per acre, labor and management costs combined: $41 per acre.)
Current budget analyses indicates favorable returns for soybeans compared to corn but crop price change and harvest yields may change this outcome. These projections are based on OSU Extension Ohio Crop Enterprise Budgets. Newly updated Enterprise Budgets for 2020 have been completed and posted to the Farm Office website: https://farmoffice.osu.edu/farm-management-tools/farm-budgets
Crop Observation and Recommendation Network
C.O.R.N. Newsletter is a summary of crop observations, related information, and appropriate recommendations for Ohio crop producers and industry. C.O.R.N. Newsletter is produced by the Ohio State University Extension Agronomy Team, state specialists at The Ohio State University and the Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center (OARDC). C.O.R.N. Newsletter questions are directed to Extension and OARDC state specialists and associates at Ohio State.
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Disclaimer
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