Warmer weather favored for the rest of the growing season Hotter and drier than normal for much of July

16-day rainfall outlook

After a cool spring, we are playing catch up fast with a warm June. June will end up being 1-3 degrees above normal with rainfall 50-100% of normal. The warm weather will continue for the rest of the summer. Maximum temperatures will likely be 1-3 degrees above normal in July. However, overnight temperatures will be even warmer, some 3-6 degrees above normal. Expect high temperatures in July to commonly be in the 85-95 range with overnight temperatures in the 65-75 degree range. 

Rainfall will be a tougher call for July. The climate models which have been tracking best tend to favor normal or below normal rainfall. Some pockets of above-normal rainfall will occur over small areas and seem to favor southern parts of the state. The driest areas appear to be northwest Ohio. Rain will likely be 50-110% of normal again in July. For the first two weeks of July, expect hot and drier than normal weather. Rainfall for the first two weeks of July will average 0.25 to 1.25 inches while normal is not far from 2 inches for that time.

Therefore, small pockets of drought could develop in July if we remain hot and dry for too long.

August and September continue to favor temperatures several degrees above normal. Rainfall will be scattered with areas of below and above normal driven very much on the local-scale due to thunderstorms.

The early outlook for fall harvest season signals above normal temperatures and rainfall going from below to above normal but averaging close to normal overall. There is no indication of an early freeze this fall at this time.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center Week 3-4 outlooks can be found here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

The 16-day rainfall outlooks can be found on the NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center page at: https://www.weather.gov/images/ohrfc/dynamic/NAEFS16.apcp.mean.total.png

Topics: 

Crop Observation and Recommendation Network

C.O.R.N. Newsletter is a summary of crop observations, related information, and appropriate recommendations for Ohio crop producers and industry. C.O.R.N. Newsletter is produced by the Ohio State University Extension Agronomy Team, state specialists at The Ohio State University and the Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center (OARDC). C.O.R.N. Newsletter questions are directed to Extension and OARDC state specialists and associates at Ohio State.

Author(s):