The National Weather Service Frost/Freeze program has ended for the season as many areas have experienced 1-2 hard freezes (28°F) over the last three weeks.
A wet end to October was both a blessing and a curse. October ranks as the 18th wettest October on record (1895-2020) for Ohio, with much of the state picking up 3-8” of liquid-equivalent precipitation. Unfortunately, this slowed harvest with moisture content in corn remaining high. However, we have seen significant improvements in the U.S. Drought Monitor, with only about 7% of Ohio currently experiencing abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions (Fig. 1).
Ohio’s weather has been dominated by high pressure this past week, with many locations reporting record highs over the weekend. In fact, Dayton set a monthly record high of 80°F for November. For more information on recent climate conditions and impacts, check out the latest Hydro-Climate Assessment from the State Climate Office of Ohio.
Warm and dry conditions will continue into Tuesday before a cold front moves through the region. Rain showers are likely late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, with high pressure and dry weather resuming for Wednesday afternoon through Saturday. While the next couple of days will see highs in the 70s, Wednesday’s highs are expected in the 60s, with highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s for Thursday through Saturday. Our next opportunity for rainfall will occur on Sunday and Monday. The Weather Prediction Center is currently forecasting 0.50-3.00” of rain across Ohio with two systems over the next 7 days (Fig. 2).
The latest NOAA/NWS/Climate Prediction Center outlook for the 8-14 day period (November 17 - 23) and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center shows above average temperatures and near to below average precipitation are likely (Fig. 3). Normal highs during the period are in the mid- to upper-50s, lows in the mid- to upper-30s, with about 0.85” of rainfall per week.