C.O.R.N. Newsletter: 2021-01
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Winter Into Spring Outlook
La Nina remains in full swing, the cooling of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Typically the impacts kick in for Ohio by late December or January. You can see the typical wet signal for the Ohio Valley and Ohio in the attached La Nina graphic courtesy of NOAA.
You can keep up on La Nina and ENSO at the links below:
https://mrcc.illinois.edu/pubs/pubsElNino.jsp
Therefore, the climate pattern supports big swings for temperatures for the rest of winter through early spring with the tendency toward above normal temperatures. This will also support snow that comes and goes for most of Ohio. This can expose winter wheat to temperature changes with limited snowpack.
As for rainfall and precipitation, expect above normal conditions to ramp back up for later January into February and March. Northwest Ohio subsoils remain drier than normal but the expectation is for wetting up to continue late winter into early spring.
Going forward through spring, the wetter conditions typically shutdown at some point and that varies for each La Nina event but often it is by May or June.
We will have to watch an expansive drought area in parts of the central and western U.S. to see if that shifts east for summer. That can happen during La Nina events where we go from wet in winter and spring to dry in summer.
For winter into spring expect wetter in the eastern corn and soybean area while drier in western areas. By late spring and summer that dryness can shift east.
Finally, attached is an image of the last 30-years of rainfall trends for spring provided by NOAA. You will see the wetting up in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes including Ohio.
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Agricultural Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage for the 2021 Crop Year
Enrollment for the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs for the 2021 crop year opened in October, with the deadline to enroll and make amendments to program elections on March 15, 2021. This signup is for potential payments for the 2021 crop.
If changes are not made by the March 15th deadline, the election defaults to the programs selected for the 2020 crop year with no penalty. While it is optional to make changes to program elections, producers are required to enroll (sign a contract) each year to be eligible to receive payments. So, even if you do not change your program elections, you will still need to make an appointment at the Farm Service Agency to sign off on enrollment for the 2021 crop year by that March 15th deadline.
Producers have the option to enroll covered commodities in either ARC-County, ARC-Individual, or PLC. Program elections are made on a crop-by-crop basis unless selecting ARC-Individual where all crops under that FSA Farm Number fall under that program. These are the same program options that were available to producers during the 2019 and 2020 crop years. In some cases producers may want to amend program election to better manage the potential risks facing their farms during the 2021 crop year.
As you consider amending your program choices, here are some important reminders:
- PLC payments are triggered by low prices. PLC is a disaster price program and pays when the marketing year average price is below a reference price. The marketing year average price (MYAP) is an average price calculated using cash prices across the nation over the course of a year. The 2021 marketing year for wheat is May, 2021 – June, 2022 and for corn and soybeans is August, 2021 – September, 2022. This means that the MYAP for 2021 for wheat will not be known until June, 2022 and the MYAP for corn and soybeans will not be known until September, 2022. PLC payments will only be triggered for a covered commodity if the MYAP published at the end of the marketing year are below the reference price. The reference price for corn is $3.70, for soybeans is $8.40, and for wheat is $5.50.
- ARC-County payments are triggered by low county revenues. Revenues are calculated using the market year average price times the county average yield. When producers enrolled for 2019 and 2020, they were enrolling after the 2019 crop had been harvested. Yields for 2019 were known at the time of the enrollment deadline for that year. For the 2021 crop year, producers will be enrolling before the crop is planted.
- Producers have less information about both price and yields for the 2021 enrollment period, compared to the last enrollment period. When producers enrolled for 2019 and 2020, we were more than halfway through the marketing year for each crop, so there was much more information on price expectation. For the 2021 crop year, producers will be enrolling before the marketing year begins.
- The maximum ARC-IC payment is triggered in cases where an FSA Farm has 100% Prevent Plant acres. At the time of enrollment for the 2019 crop year, producers knew if they had FSA Farms that fit this description and were able to use that information to decide if ARC-IC was a good fit for a FSA Farm. For the 2021 crop year, producers will need to decide by March 15th if ARC-IC is still the right choice for those farms without knowledge of how many acres they will have in Prevent Plant. While some FSA Farms triggered large payments for ARC-IC in 2019, producers may want to re-assess this program election for the 2021 crop year if they do not expect to put those farms in 100% Prevent Plant in 2021.
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For most producers, the number one consideration driving program election is the markets. What are markets going to do? We will not know the MYA price for corn or soybeans until September of 2022, and a lot could change in that time.
OSU Extension and the Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics (AEDE) are offering several webinars between now and the March 15th enrollment deadline for producers to get up to date market outlook information. For information about AEDE’s 2021 Winter Outlook Meetings, visit https://aede.osu.edu/research/agricultural-policy-and-outlook-conferences/county-meetings.
Additionally, OSU Extension will be offering two webinars this winter focused specifically on the ARC/PLC decision, reviewing decision-tool calculators available to evaluate options, and current market outlook. The dates for these webinars are January 13th from 1:00-3:00pm and February 25th from 9am-11am. Both programs are free to attend, but registration is required. Register online at: http://go.osu.edu/arcplc2021.
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Let the 2020 eFields Report Help You Reach Your Farm’s New Year’s Resolutions
High quality, relevant information is key to making the right management decisions for your farm. The eFields program at The Ohio State University was created to provide local information about critical issues for Ohio agriculture. The 2020 eFields Research Report highlights 218 on-farm, field scale trials conducted in 39 Ohio counties. Research topics included nutrient management, precision crop management, cover crops, and forages. Other information about crop production budgets, planting progress, and farm business analysis was also included. New in 2020 was the addition of soil health and water quality trials.
The 2020 report is now available in both a print and e-version. To receive a printed copy, contact your local OSU Extension office or email digitalag@osu.edu. The e-version can be viewed and downloaded at go.osu.edu/eFields with the online version readable using a smartphone or tablet device.
The eFields team has planned weekly webinars every Tuesday at 10AM EST in January and February. The events in January are replacing the annual Precision U event. This year’s theme focuses on “Tackling Spring Operations with Reduced Working Days.” For more information, visit go.osu.edu/PrecisionU. The events in February are focused on eFields research projects and will provide the opportunity to discuss results and gather information about research interests for 2021. More details are available at go.osu.edu/AgTechTues. There is no cost to attend any of the webinars so please plan to join us for one or all!
January 5th, 10AM – Precision U – Gambling with Planting Decisions
January 12th, 10AM – Precision U - Improving Fertilizer Efficiency with the Planter Pass
January 19th, 10AM – Precision U - Pre-season Crop Protection Decisions
January 26th, 10AM – Sprayer Technology to Improve Field Performance
February 2nd, 10AM – eFields Corn Production Results
February 9th, 10AM – eFields Soybean Production Results
February 16th, 10AM – eFields Small Grains, Forages, Soil Health, and Water Quality Results
February 23rd, 10AM – eFields Technology Results
We would like to sincerely thank all our 2020 collaborating farms and industry partners. The eFields team enjoys working with each of you and we are looking forward to continuing to learn together in 2021.
Follow our social media using @OhioStatePA on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram or subscribe to our quarterly newsletter, Digital Ag Download (go.osu.edu/DigitalAgDownload), to keep up with the eFields program throughout the year. For more information on how to get involved in eFields in 2021, contact Elizabeth Hawkins at hawkins.301@osu.edu.
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Register Now for Upcoming Virtual Agronomy Team Programs
This winter OSU Extension’s Agronomy Team is offering a variety of educational programs online, beginning this week. CCA CEUs will be offered at each session. There is no cost to attend these programs, but registration is required. Programs for January 4th – January 15th include:
- Jan. 5, 10:00-11:00am - Gambling with Planting Decisions, Aaron Wilson (Ohio State University Extension) and Bob Nielson (Purdue University). 1.0 CM CCA CEUs. Register: http://go.osu.edu/PrecisionU
- Jan. 12, 10:00-11:00am - Improving Fertilizer Efficiency with the Planter Pass, Matt Bennett (Precision Planting Technology) and John Fulton (Ohio State University). 1.0 PAg CCA CEUs. Register: http://go.osu.edu/PrecisionU
- Jan. 14, 8:00-8:30am - Does It Pay to Improve Soil Health on Your Farm? Nathan Brown, Matt Falb, and Les Seiler. 0.5 NM CCA CEUs. Register: http://go.osu.edu/soilhealth2021
- Jan. 14, 9:00-10:30am – Specialty Small Grains, Winter Malting Barley (Greg McGlinch), White Wheat (Dennis Pennington), Wet Wrapped Oats (Al Gahler), Triticale (Jason Hartschuh). 1.5 CM CCA CEUs. Register: http://go.osu.edu/cropdiversity
To register and view details on programs coming up later in the month and into March, visit: https://agcrops.osu.edu/events. All programs will be recorded, and recordings will be available to view on our website and YouTube channel. CCA CEUs are only available to participants attending live sessions (we cannot give CCA credit for watching the recordings).
Be one of the first 300 people from Ohio to sign-up and attend one of these programs, and you will receive a set of giveaways shipped to your door including a copy of the Corn, Soybean, Wheat, and Forages Field Guide, a 2020 eFields Report, digital soil thermometer, and a 2021 Agronomic Crops Team Calendar (with important marketing, crop insurance and USDA report dates identified). These items were generously funded by the Ohio Soybean Council and the USDA NIFA Integrated Pest Management program.
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Water Quality Wednesday
Water quality concerns continue to be at the forefront of environmental-impact discussions across many industries. Since agriculture occupies much of the land area in Ohio, adapting farming operations to include “best management practices” has been an area of focus for agricultural producers, governmental agencies and other stakeholders working to contribute to solutions. As water quality concerns remain, so do opportunities for reviewing the current research and considering adopting practices that work for your situation. Join The Ohio State University Extension-Water Quality Team and guest speakers for a webinar series discussing several timely topics in preparation for the 2021 growing season. Register for specific events or the entire series at: http://go.osu.edu/wqw .
First Event:
January 13th 10-11:30am
Manure & Nutrient Management
Following Events
February 10th 10-11:30am
Cover Crops and Water Quality: Sarah Noggle, Jason Hartschuh, Rachel Cochran
February 24th 10-11:30am
Best Management Practices for Water Quality
March 3rd 3-3:30pm
Lake Erie Water Quality Litigation Update: Peggy Hall
April 14th 10-11:30am
Water Quality in the Western Lake Erie Basin -
Farm Office Live Winter Edition
“Farm Office Live” returns virtually this winter as an opportunity for you to get the latest outlook and updates on ag law, farm management, ag economics, farm business analysis and other related issues from faculty and educators with the College of Food, Agriculture and Environmental Sciences at The Ohio State University.
Each Farm Office Live will start off with presentations on select ag law and farm management topics from our experts and then we'll open it up for questions from attendees on other topics of interest. Viewers can attend “Farm Office Live” online each month on Wednesday evening or Friday morning, or can catch a recording of each program. The full slate of offerings for this winter:
January 13th 7:00 – 8:30 pm
February 10th 7:00 – 8:30 pm
February 12th 10:00 – 11:30 am
March 10th 7:00 – 8:30 pm
March 12th 10:00 – 11:30 am
April 7th 7:00 – 8:30 pm
April 9th 10:00 – 11:30 am
Topics to be addressed this winter include:
Outlook on Crop Input Costs and Profit Margins
Outlook on Cropland Values and Cash Rents
Outlook on Interest Rates
Tax Issues That May Impact Farm Businesses
Legal trends for 2021
Legislative updates
Farm business management and analysis updates
Farm succession & estate planning updates
Who's on the Farm Office Team? Our team features OSU experts ready to help you manage your farm office:
Peggy Kirk Hall -- agricultural law
Dianne Shoemaker -- farm business analysis and dairy production
David Marrison -- farm management
Barry Ward -- agricultural economics and tax
Register at https://go.osu.edu/farmofficelive
We look forward to you joining us this winter!
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Organic Production Winter Webinar Series
Ohio State will host a series of organic production webinars on Wednesdays this winter, from 11-11:45 a.m. The series will provide opportunities for Ohio’s organic community to learn about Ohio State research and resources. Each session includes time for questions and discussion. We hope participating organic farmers and those interested in organic production will share their own experience, observations, questions, and ideas. Farmers considering organic certification or seeking ways to lower their farm inputs will also benefit from the presentations, as will educators and researchers interested in organic issues and management. A range of topics are planned. Some sessions of interest to agronomic crop producers are listed below.
According to the 2019 USDA Census of Agriculture, Ohio ranks 5th among U.S. states in the number of certified organic farms. Since the 2016 organic census, Ohio’s organic sales and cropland acres have both increased by more than 35%. The Buckeye state ranks among the top 10 states in organic soybean, corn, oats, and dairy production.
January 6, 2021, 11 a.m.
Cover Crops Suitable for Organic Production - Rachel Cochran, Amanda Douridas, Jason Hartschuh, Sarah Noggle, OSU Extension
January 13, 2021, 11 a.m.
Transition Q&A - Julia Barton, Ohio Ecological Food and Farm Association
February 3, 2021, 11 a.m.
Cultural Control Strategies for Nightmare Weeds – Doug Doohan
February 24, 2021, 11 a.m.
Organic Dairy Herd Health Management – Caroline Brock and Jessica Pempek
March 3, 2021, 11 a.m.
Tips for Using/Attracting Beneficial Insects – Mary Gardiner
March 17, 2021, 11 a.m.
Management Practices That Impact Soil Health and Organic Matter - Christine Sprunger
All speakers are affiliated with Ohio State unless otherwise indicated. For a full list of the organic production winter webinar series including connection information, visit go.osu.edu/organic-series. You can also sign up to receive email reminders for some or all of the events. For questions, contact Cassandra Brown at brown.1844@osu.edu.
Crop Observation and Recommendation Network
C.O.R.N. Newsletter is a summary of crop observations, related information, and appropriate recommendations for Ohio crop producers and industry. C.O.R.N. Newsletter is produced by the Ohio State University Extension Agronomy Team, state specialists at The Ohio State University and the Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center (OARDC). C.O.R.N. Newsletter questions are directed to Extension and OARDC state specialists and associates at Ohio State.
Contributors
Disclaimer
The information presented here, along with any trade names used, is supplied with the understanding that no discrimination is intended and no endorsement is made by Ohio State University Extension is implied. Although every attempt is made to produce information that is complete, timely, and accurate, the pesticide user bears responsibility of consulting the pesticide label and adhering to those directions.
CFAES provides research and related educational programs to clientele on a nondiscriminatory basis. For an accessible format of this publication, visit cfaes.osu.edu/accessibility.