This past summer (June-August) ranks as the 13th warmest on record (1895-2021), with overnight lows near record levels (2nd warmest on record). Recent temperatures have been running 3-5 degrees F above average as crops continue to dry down and harvest is underway. Precipitation over the last 30 days has been seasonally-average in areas of west central and southeast Ohio, but dry elsewhere.
High pressure that has been keeping our weather hot and dry has slid off to the east, with return southerly flow pumping plentiful moisture northward into the Ohio Valley. A strong cold front moving in from the west, the first major cold front of the fall season, will lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm development throughout the day on Tuesday, and especially on Wednesday as the system moves through the Buckeye State. High pressure will return starting Thursday throughout the upcoming weekend, with a chance of showers on Saturday. All in all, the state is looking at its first widespread heavy rainfall event in quite some time, with the Weather Prediction Center calling for 1.50-4.0+” of rain over the next 7 days (Figure 1). Temperatures will start out seasonally mild on Tuesday in the 70s, then fall into the upper 50s to mid-60s for highs (40s for lows) on Wednesday and Thursday.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10-day outlook for the period of September 25-29, 2021 and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center indicate temperatures are leaning below average with near to below average precipitation (Figure 2). Climate averages for this period include a high temperature range of 74-78°F, a low temperature range of 54-58°F, and average rainfall of 0.50-0.75 inches.