Weather Update: Winter Weather Returns with the New Year

 

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Well above average temperatures continued throughout December. In fact, many sites across Ohio had one of their top 5 warmest Christmas Days on record (observations dating back to the 1870s), with Cincinnati recording its warmest temperature for that date at 69°F.  

 

 

Figure 1). Accumulated precipitation for December 4, 2021 – January 3, 2022.

Figure courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (https://mrcc.purdue.edu/).

In addition to the warmth, December 2021 will likely go down as one of the wettest in history for the state. Over the last 30 days, much of Ohio has received 5-8 inches of precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, with the northern counties seeing slightly lesser amounts. Snowfall is running way behind schedule, with the top 4-inch soil temperatures still running above freezing for daily averages.

Forecast

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Figure 2). Precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center for 7pm Monday Jan 3  - 7pm Monday Jan 10. 

High pressure will dominate the weather to begin the week, with seasonally average temperatures. Highs should reach the mid-30s to low 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday, with overnight lows in the upper teens to mid-20s. An Arctic cold front combined with a developing low-pressure system to the south of the Ohio Valley may bring widespread accumulating snow to the region for Thursday, leaving frigid air in its wake for Friday. This Arctic cold snap will be short-lived, as an active pattern brings yet another cold front toward the region by Sunday. Return flow out of the south will bump temperatures back up closer to average for the weekend. The Weather Prediction Center is currently predicting up to 0.50 inch of precipitation over the next 7 days, primarily in the form of snow on Thursday (Figure 2).  

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10-day outlook for the period of January 9 - 13, 2022 and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center indicate that  temperatures are likely to be near normal and precipitation is likely to lean below average (Figure 3). This stretch may provide a nice respite for winter farm activities. Climate averages for this period include a high temperature range of 34-39°F, a low temperature range of 20-24°F, and average rainfall of 0.55-0.85 inches.

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Figure 3) Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Outlook valid for January 9-13, 2022, for left) temperatures and right) precipitation. Colors represent the probability of below, normal, or above normal conditions.

Crop Observation and Recommendation Network

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