Weather Update: A Warmer but Wetter Week Ahead

Although the region has seen a few warm days, winter has certainly not given up entirely. This past weekend, Ohio dealt with snow showers and even a little graupel. What is graupel? The word originates from the German word “graúpe” or “barley”. This soft, spongy snow pellet forms as a snowflake collects supercooled water droplets, a process called riming. Some areas even had light accumulation of snow and graupel. Is it enough to satisfy that age old forsythia folklore? We’ll see!

The region has been running cool, 1-7°F below average over the first third of the month compared to the long-term mean (1991-2020). Despite some light and frequent precipitation, overall, we are running below average at 25-75% of normal precipitation over the last 30 days (see the soil temperature and moisture article in this issue). For the latest up-to-date conditions, seasonal outlooks, and monthly climate summaries, please visit the State Climate Office of Ohio.

Figure 1). Departures from average temperature for April 1-11, 2022. Figure courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (https://mrcc.purdue.edu/).

Forecast

This will be an active weather week, kicked off yesterday by areas of showers and storms moving through Ohio. Scattered showers and storms are possible again today, with a better chance of rain on Wednesday. We could see some severe weather across western counties as well, with gusty winds likely throughout Wednesday and Thursday. Above average temperatures in the 60s and 70s are expected today and tomorrow. Drier but cooler weather will move in late week into the weekend, with additional showers possible on Sunday and Monday. Overall, the Weather Prediction Center is forecasting 0.75-2.00” of precipitation over the next 7 days (Fig. 2).   

Figure 2). Precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center for 8am Monday April 11 – 8am Monday April 18.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10-day outlook for the period of April 17 – 21, 2022 and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center indicate a strong probability of below average temperatures with precipitation leaning toward wetter than average conditions (Fig 3).  

 

Figure 3) Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Outlook valid for April 11-21, 2022, for left) temperatures and right) precipitation. Colors represent the probability of below, normal, or above normal conditions.

The next ten day is the typical period that much of Ohio expereiences its last freeze (32°) of the season (Figure 4). 

Climate averages for this period include a high temperature range of 59-65°F, a low temperature range of 38-43°F, and average weekly liquid-equivalent precipitation of 0.75-1.05 inches.

   Figure 4) Climatological date of the median last 32°F Freeze in the spring. Figure courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center’s Vegetation Impacts Program.

 

Crop Observation and Recommendation Network

C.O.R.N. Newsletter is a summary of crop observations, related information, and appropriate recommendations for Ohio crop producers and industry. C.O.R.N. Newsletter is produced by the Ohio State University Extension Agronomy Team, state specialists at The Ohio State University and the Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center (OARDC). C.O.R.N. Newsletter questions are directed to Extension and OARDC state specialists and associates at Ohio State.

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