Cooler (not cold) and Active Weather Week Ahead

Summary

Climatologically, the monthly average temperature for April 2022 in Ohio was near the long-term mean, ranked as the 51^st coolest April on record (1895-2022) and 42^nd driest.

More recently, temperatures through the first half of May are running 1-5°F above the long-term mean (Fig. 1). This is largely the result of the 5- to 6-days last week spent in the low to mid 80s for highs. Overall, precipitation has been running greater than normal, except for a few counties near the Ohio River and in the far northeast. In fact, CoCoRaHS observations in Fayette County indicate that more than 9 inches of rain has fallen near Washington Court House over the last 30 days. For the latest up-to-date conditions, seasonal outlooks, and monthly climate summaries, please visit the State Climate Office of Ohio

Figure 1). Differences from average temperature for May 1-16, 2022. Figure courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (https://mrcc.purdue.edu/).

Forecast

After a cool start on Tuesday morning, abundant sunshine should lift highs into the mid-60s across the Lake Erie shore to the upper 70s across southern counties. The next system moves in for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing scattered showers and storms and highs in the 70s. Strong southerly flow on Friday will bump temperatures well into the 80s, before a cold front moves through Ohio over the weekend enhancing the threat of showers and storms. The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting less than 0.50” across northeast Ohio to as much as 1.25” across the southwest over the next 7 days (Fig. 2).

Figure 2). Precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center for 8pm Monday May 16 – 8pm Monday May 24.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10-day outlook for the period of May 26 – 28, 2022 and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center lean toward below average temperatures and above average precipitation (Fig. 3). Climate averages for this period include a high temperature range of 72-76°F, a low temperature range of 50-55°F, and average weekly total precipitation of 0.85-1.15 inches.

Figure 3) Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Outlook valid for May 22-26, 2022, for left) temperatures and right) precipitation. Colors represent the probability of below, normal, or above normal conditions.