Weather Update: A Winter Preview Before Warmer Weather Returns

Fall Tree Colors

Summary
A strong cold front brought beneficial rainfall to many areas along and east of about I-71 last week. However, parts of western Ohio missed out on much of the activity, as very dry conditions continue across that part of the Buckeye State. Over the last 30 days, parts of Darke, Preble, Montgomery, Miami, and Shelby Countes have picked up less than 5% of their normal rainfall for this time of year (Figure 1). Dayton, Ohio has seen its second-driest stretch for the last 30 days (0.1”), just behind the record set in 1963 (0.05”). Dry, windy conditions led to several reports of combine and field fires, including a fairly large incident in Darke County. On the flip side, wet condtions continue near Lake Erie in northeast Ohio. Overall, temperatures continue to run below average as well, 1-3°F below average across much of the Figure 1). Percent of normal precipitation over the period September 18- October 17, 2022. Figure courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center southern half of Ohio. For the latest up-to-date conditions, seasonal outlooks, and monthly climate summaries, please visit the State Climate Office of Ohio.

Forecast
The first half of this week will be dominated by an upper-level low pressure system that will move through the Great Lakes, bringing with it blustery conditions, cold temperatures (15-20 degrees below normal), and the chance of rain showers mixed with snow at times. Freeze Warnings and Watches are also in effect, as overnight lows through Thursday morning are likely to flirt with or drop below freezing. This will likely end the growing season across the state. Highs through Wednesday are only expected to top out in the mid to upper 40s at best. Conditions will start to impove on Thursday, with sunshine returning and highs in the low to mid 50s. Dry weather is expected to continue on Friday and throughout the upcomiong weekend. Southerly flow around high pressure will lift highs back into the 60s and eventually 70s. The Weather Prediction Center is currently forecasting up to 0.50” of precipitation across Ohio this week, with locally heavier amounts downwind of Lake Erie (Figure 2).

Figure 2). Precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center for 8pm Monday October 18 – 8pm Monday October 25, 2022.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10-day outlook for the period of October 23 - 27, 2022 and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center show a major weather pattern shift, with above normal temperatures likely and precipitation near or leaning above average (Figure 3). Climate averages include a high-temperature range of 61-65°F, a low-temperature range of 41-44°F, and average weekly total precipitation of 0.55-0.75 inches.

Figure 3) Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Outlook valid for October 23 – 27, 2022, for left) temperatures and right) precipitation. Colors represent the probability of below, normal, or above normal conditions.

Crop Observation and Recommendation Network

C.O.R.N. Newsletter is a summary of crop observations, related information, and appropriate recommendations for Ohio crop producers and industry. C.O.R.N. Newsletter is produced by the Ohio State University Extension Agronomy Team, state specialists at The Ohio State University and the Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center (OARDC). C.O.R.N. Newsletter questions are directed to Extension and OARDC state specialists and associates at Ohio State.

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