Summary
For most of the spring, Ohio has avoided hot temperatures. This changed last Friday and Saturday when highs reached the low to mid-90s across the state. Along with the heat came very dry air; for example, Columbus had a dewpoint temperature on Friday of 38°F with a relative humidity of 17%! The heat and low humidity combined for some evaporation rates of 0.20-0.25” per day or about 2” for the week for many stations, with only scattered storms on Saturday. Figure 1 shows that both the 30- and 60-day percent of normal precipitation have decreased this week, with parts of northern Ohio only receiving 5-25% of normal precipitation over the last 30 days (or less than 0.5”). This has continued to diminish soil moisture, lower streamflows, and lead to volunteer water use reductions in some communities. Agricultural impacts are also becoming evident, with stress on newly emerged crops and grazing conditions. To submit observations and impacts for your location, please visit the National Drought Mitigation Center’s Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (https://go.osu.edu/drought_cmor). These reports will help us monitor the rapidly changing conditions and update the US Drought Monitor for Ohio.
Forecast
Mainly dry weather will continue much of this week as well, though a cold front dropping south from Canada has cooled temperatures back to near to below-average levels. Highs this week will mainly range from the upper 60s to mid-70s, with cool overnight lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s. This pattern has also brought elevated wildfire smoke that has our skies looking quite milky at times. A few scattered showers are possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning, but high pressure will quickly resume control for Wednesday through Saturday. Another cold front may bring a round of showers on Sunday into Monday. The current forecast shows that this precipitation could amount to 0.25-0.75” (Figure 2), still short of the 1” per week normal rates.
Guidance from the Climate Prediction Center and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center indicate that the near to below-average temperatures are likely to continue for June 11-15, with near to leaning toward above-average precipitation (Figure 3). Climate averages include a high-temperature range of 78-82°F, a low-temperature range of 58-62°F, and average weekly total precipitation of 0.85-1.05 inches.
