May 21st through June 10th was quite the dry spell across Ohio, with moderate drought conditions declared across 62% of the state by the US Drought Monitor on June 8th. These extended dry conditions compelled CFAES to activate its Rapid Response Team, which has created an early drought response resource site for Ohio’s farmers and communities. However, a change in the weather pattern this past weekend brought a strong cold front and Gulf of Mexico moisture to the region over the weekend. A wide swath of 1-2” of rain fell along and to the northwest of about I-71, with pockets of much heavier precipitation north of Dayton and in the Cleveland area (Figure 1). A CoCoRaHS observer west of Troy reported 3.41” of rain during Sunday-Monday’s event, with Miami, Loraine, Cuyahoga, and Lake Counties reporting multiple locations with 2-3” of rain. However, northwest and southeast counties were not as lucky, and although lighter rain certainly was a joy to experience, much drier than normal conditions continue across these areas. Except for areas that received the heaviest rainfall from this past weekend’s event, most of Ohio is running 10-50% of normal precipitation over the last 30 to 60 days. This event has slowed the progression of drought for many of us, but drought conditions continue. We encourage you to continue to submit observations and impacts for your location by visiting https://go.osu.edu/drought_cmor.
Forecast
After calm weather on Monday, a closed low pressure over the northern Great Lakes will bring northwesterly flow and the development of showers and isolated storms on Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be cooler than average, with highs generally in the 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the 50s. A warming trend, with highs in the 80s, is expected for most of the state (cooler downwind of Lake Erie) from Thursday through Sunday. Weak disturbances will move across the region though, bringing periods of showers and storms across the state during this time. The current forecast shows another 1-2” could fall across most of Ohio over the next 7 days (Figure 2). If realized, this will continue to help improve drought conditions, crop health, and water supplies.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 Day Outlook and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center indicate that the temperatures will be close to average with the possibility of near to below average precipitation for the period June 20-26, 2023 (Figure 3). Climate averages include a high-temperature range of 80-84°F, a low-temperature range of 60-64°F, and average weekly total precipitation of 0.85-1.15 inches.
