After a couple of weeks of dry conditions in the state, “the skies opened up” during the last week or so (Figure 1). Showers and storms moved across the state during this period. Prior to these rainfall events, we heard comments “This is starting to look like 1988”, but thankfully, we think that we did not get there. The recent rains and cooler temperatures have alleviated (at least to some degree) the drought concerns in areas of the state. We still need steady rains throughout the growing season, and we hope we get them. For now, the next 7-day forecast has rains for most regions.
Despite the recent rains and showers in most of the state, USDA-NASS reported (06/12/23) topsoil moisture conditions rated as 35% very short, 42% short, and 23% adequate. Subsoil moisture was rated 17% very short, 53% short, and 30% adequate. We anticipate these numbers will change after the rainfall last week. The soil surface conditions were the most affected during the dry period. At deeper layers in the soil, better moisture conditions have been available.
As a recap… 1988 and 2012 were years with significant drought effects across the region, here is a summary of drought impact for Ohio during those two years. We present the percentage yield reduction compared to the average yield in three years prior to drought conditions. This summary is presented using the USDA-NASS data, and split by Ohio Crop Reporting Districts, CRDs (Figure 2).
1988: Crop Yield Response to Drought for Ohio by State Total and Crop Reporting District (CRD). Percentage reduction of 1988 yields compared to the average of the three previous years (1985-1987). Data from USDA-NASS.
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Crop changes – 1988 |
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Crop Reporting District |
Corn |
Corn Silage |
Soybean |
Wheat |
|
10 – Northwest region |
-32% |
-31% |
-38% |
-18% |
|
20 – Northcentral region |
-38% |
-33% |
-40% |
-12% |
|
30 – Northeast region |
-39% |
-39% |
-17% |
4% |
|
40 – West central region |
-35% |
-35% |
-36% |
-10% |
|
50 – Central region |
-25% |
-44% |
-21% |
-4% |
|
60 – East central region |
-29% |
-37% |
-5% |
6% |
|
70 – Southwest region |
-34% |
-34% |
-25% |
3% |
|
80 – South central region |
-28% |
-40% |
-14% |
12% |
|
90 – Southeast region |
-32% |
-39% |
-6% |
9% |
|
State Average |
-32% |
-37% |
-32% |
-10% |
2012: Crop Yield Response to Drought for Ohio by State Total and Crop Reporting District (CRD). Percentage reduction of 2012 yields compared to the average of the three previous years (2009-2011). Data from USDA-NASS.
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Crop changes – 2012 |
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Crop Reporting District |
Corn |
Corn Silage* |
Soybean |
Wheat |
|
10 – Northwest region |
-27% |
. |
3% |
7% |
|
20 – Northcentral region |
-19% |
. |
-7% |
2% |
|
30 – Northeast region |
-15% |
. |
-3% |
17% |
|
40 – West central region |
-27% |
. |
-7% |
16% |
|
50 – Central region |
-26% |
. |
-16% |
8% |
|
60 – East central region |
-27% |
. |
-19% |
14% |
|
70 – Southwest region |
-35% |
. |
-16% |
5% |
|
80 – South central region |
-28% |
. |
1% |
-1% |
|
90 – Southeast region |
-23% |
. |
-7% |
-4% |
|
State Average |
-26% |
-18% |
-7% |
8% |
*Corn silage data by ag district is not reported by NASS for 2009-2012.
Main takeaway
This is the beginning of the season, and it is too early to make accurate assessments of how much or how little impact on crop yields drought could have caused. Note that some of the drought potential impacts to this point in the 2023 season might have been moderated through different mechanisms (to some degree). Some of those moderating mechanisms can include 1) hybrid/variety selection (breeding programs have improved the genetics that we grow today), 2) adjusting planting dates (earlier or later to avoid dry periods, either early in the season or later as well), and 3) rainfall later in the season (this is probably the most relevant now, as rainfall in the rest of the season [higher water demand] will dictate what the outcomes are for this crop year, moderating early-season impacts).
When it comes to crop conditions and effects on yields, corn, and soybean are most affected if drought happens close to the flowering period, which is when the most amount of water is demanded by each crop. For additional information on how dry conditions can affect early crop establishment, access: