Corn is progressing nicely across most of the state. For the week ending 07/09/23, USDA reported close to 70% of corn being good to excellent in the state (Figure 1). Simulations of 2023 end-of-season corn yield potential and crop staging were performed on July 13, using the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model in collaboration with faculty and extension educators from 10 universities.
Forecasts can help researchers, growers, and industry stakeholders make management, logistics, and marketing decisions during the 2023 crop season. Forecasts cover 40 locations across the Corn Belt, including Western (South Charleston), Northwest (Custar), and Northeast (Wooster site) in Ohio. Table 1 summarizes results for the state of Ohio as of July 13, 2023.
Summary: the crop is still in vegetative stages for most of the state (Figure 2), it is still early to make strong inferences about end-of-season yields. Temperature and rainfall during the rest of July and August will be critical to understanding if the current projections are maintained. The forecasts do not consider yield-limiting factors such as crop stand issues, storm damage, replanting, disease, or nutrient losses. Hence, actual yields could be lower than the estimates provided. Likewise, results can deviate with varying planting dates or hybrid maturities. Additionally, yield forecasts are not field specific and represent an average yield estimate for a given location and surrounding area.
§Long-term (last 20+ years) potential yield at each location and surrounding area.
¶ Range of forecasted 2023 potential yields based on average planting date in 2023, indicating the potential yields in the 25th and 75th percentile of the potential yield distribution (associated with respective adverse and favorable weather scenarios during the rest of the season).
† Probability of obtaining a 2023 yield below (<10%), near (±10%), and above (>10%) than the long-term potential yield at each location.
As more corn yield and phenology forecasts become available this crop season, short briefs will be released via the OSU C.O.R.N. Newsletter. The article included below summarizes the complete forecast and simulation across the Corn Belt. A summary of weather conditions during the last 60 days (from May 13 to July 12) is included in that source.
Reference
Grassini, P., Andrade, J., Rizzo, G., Yang, H., Rees, J., Coulter, J., Licht, M., Archontoulis, S., Ciampitti, I., Singh, M., & Ortez, O. (2023). Corn Yield Forecasts: Approach and Interpretation of Results. UNL Nebraska CropWatch. Available from: https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2023/2023-corn-yield-forecasts-july-13