Most of the corn acreage in Ohio now should have reached the silking stage, except for delayed planting conditions. Some fields have already transitioned to dough and milk stages. A new simulation of 2023 end-of-season corn yield potential and crop staging was performed on August 2, using the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model in collaboration with faculty and extension educators from 10 universities.
Forecasts can help researchers, growers, and industry stakeholders make management, logistics, and marketing decisions during the 2023 crop season. Forecasts cover 40 locations across the Corn Belt, including Western (South Charleston), Northwest (Custar), and Northeast (Wooster site) in Ohio.
Table 1 and Figure 1 summarize the results for the state of Ohio as of August 2, 2023.
Table 1. Simulations of 2023 end-of-season corn yield potential and crop stage on August 2. Adapted from Grassini et al., 2023.
§ Long-term (last 20+ years) potential yield at each location and surrounding area.
¶ Range of forecasted 2023 potential yields based on average planting date in 2023, indicating the potential yields in the 25th and 75th percentile of the potential yield distribution (associated with respective adverse and favorable weather scenarios during the rest of the season).
† probability of obtaining a 2023 yield below (<10%), near (±10%), and above (>10%) than the long-term potential yield at each location.
Summary
As of August 2, 2023, projections show about a 50% probability (+/-) of near-average yield potential for Custar, South Charleston, and the Wooster sites. South Charleston and Wooster show a 36% and 18% probability of being below the long-term average yield potential. The Custar site shows 53% probability of being above the long-term average yield potential. It is still early to make strong inferences about yields in Ohio since we still have corn at vegetative and silking stages. Crop conditions like temperature and water availability during August will dictate if the projections are maintained and what actual yields we get.
The forecasts do not consider other yield-limiting factors such as crop stand issues, storm damage, replanting, disease, or nutrient losses. Likewise, results can deviate with varying planting dates or hybrid maturities. Yield forecasts are not field specific and represent an average yield estimate for a given location and surrounding area. As more corn yield and phenology forecasts become available this crop season, short briefs will be released via the OSU C.O.R.N. Newsletter.
Reference
Grassini, P., Andrade, J., Rizzo, G., Yang, H., Rees, J., Coulter, J., Licht, M., Archontoulis, S., Ciampitti, I., Singh, M., & Ortez, O. (2023). Corn Yield Forecasts: Approach and Interpretation of Results. UNL Nebraska CropWatch. Available from: https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2023/2023-corn-yield-forecasts-aug-2