Most of the corn acreage in Ohio is now at grain filling stages. On the last USDA crop progress report (week Ending 08/27/23), it was estimated that corn dough (R4) progress was 79 percent complete, and corn dented (R5) progress was 30 percent complete (a few average points behind schedule but almost on track with last year and the 5-year average).
A new simulation of 2023 end-of-season corn yield potential and crop staging was performed on August 23, using the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model in collaboration with faculty and extension educators from 10 universities. Forecasts help researchers, growers, and industry stakeholders to make management, logistics, and marketing decisions during the crop season. Forecasts cover 40 locations across the Corn Belt, including South Charleston (Western Ohio), Custar (Northwest Ohio), and Wooster (Northeast Ohio). Table 1 and Figure 1 summarize the results for the state of Ohio as of August 23, 2023.
Figure 1. On the left figure, simulated developmental stage for rainfed corn at each location (left figure). R1: silking; R2: blister; R3: milk; R4: dough; R5: dent; R6: physiological maturity.
On the right figure, probability of the 2023 yield potential to be below, near, and above the long-term (2005-2022) average yield potential at each location. Larger color sections within the pie chart indicate higher probability that end-of-season corn yield will be in that category. Source: Grassini et al., 2023.
Summary
As of August 23, 2023, the projected results for Ohio have improved. Despite a rough growing season with development variability and dry periods, the chances of below-average yield potential are low (3% for Custar, 3% for South Charleston, and 16% for Wooster). Current projections show 45% to 66% probability of near-average yield potential for Ohio. The Custar and South Charleston sites show 53% and 42% probability of being above the long-term average yield potential, respectively. Wooster’s conditions are not as optimistic as the other two locations, only 18% chances of above long-term average yield potential.
Adequate solar radiation, temperatures, and precipitation during the rest of the grain fill period will determine the final outputs. Regionally projections show that yield potential is highly variable, but most sites in the eastern part of the Corn Belt have increased chances for near or above-average yields, compared to earlier forecasts this season. On the other hand, places in the western/central Corn Belt show high chances of below-average yields (northern MO, eastern IA, south-central NE, and north-central KS).
The forecasts do not consider other yield-limiting factors such as crop stand issues, storm damage, replanting, disease, or nutrient losses. Likewise, results can deviate with varying planting dates or hybrid maturities. Yield forecasts are not field specific and represent an average yield estimate for a given location and surrounding area. As more corn yield and phenology forecasts become available this crop season, short briefs will be released via the OSU C.O.R.N. Newsletter.
Reference
Grassini, P., Andrade, J., Rizzo, G., Yang, H., Rees, J., Coulter, J., Licht, M., Archontoulis, S., Ciampitti, I., Singh, M., & Ortez, O. (2023). Corn Yield Forecasts as of Aug. 23. UNL Nebraska CropWatch. Available from: https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2023/2023-corn-yield-forecasts-aug-23