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Agronomic Crops Network

Ohio State University Extension


2023 End-of-season Corn Yield Forecasts

Corn at the dented stage (R5)

Most of the corn acreage in Ohio is now at dented (R5) and mature (R6) stages. On the September 18 USDA crop progress report (week Ending 09/17/23), dented corn progress was 67 percent complete, and mature corn progress was 22 percent complete. Despite row crop progress remaining slightly behind the five-year average, favorable crop condition ratings exceeded previous year averages.

The 2023 end-of-season corn yield forecast is now available for Ohio and the Corn Belt region. The forecast uses the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model in collaboration with faculty and extension educators from 10 universities. Forecasts help researchers, growers, and industry stakeholders to make management, logistics, and marketing decisions during the crop season. Forecasts cover 40 locations across the Corn Belt, including South Charleston (Western Ohio), Custar (Northwest Ohio), and Wooster (Northeast Ohio). Table 1 and Figure 1 summarize the 2023 end-of-season corn yield forecast results.

Corn at the dented stage (R5) in northeast Ohio, September 2023.

Table 1 (above)Figure 1. Simulated developmental stage for rainfed corn at each location. R1: silking; R2: blister; R3: milk; R4: dough; R5: dent; R6: physiological maturity.

Figure 2. The probability of 2023 yields to be below, near, and above the long-term (2005-2022) average yield potential at each location. Larger color sections within the pie chart indicate a higher probability that end-of-season corn yield will be in that category. Source: Grassini et al., 2023.


Despite a rough year with development variability and dry periods, the 2023 end-of-season Corn Yield Forecast results for Ohio are promising:

  • The chances of below-average yield potential are none for the Custar and South Charleston sites and an 8% chance of below-average yields for the Wooster site (Table 1).
  • Projections show a 21% (Custar site), 45% (South Charleston site), and 66% (Wooster) probability of near-average yield potential (Table 1).
  • The Custar and South Charleston sites show a 79% and 55% probability of having above-average yield potential. Wooster’s conditions are not as optimistic, with only a 26% chance of above-average yields (Table 1).

Regional projections show that most corn has reached maturity, and yield potential is variable. Aggregated across all sites, yield potential this season is about 7% below the historical average. Regional observations include:

  • A little over half of the sites have a high probability of below-average yields, primarily located in the central, western, and northwestern Corn Belt (Figure 2).
  • Most sites in the eastern part of the Corn Belt and a few in the central/western Corn Belt have a high probability of near-average yields (Figure 2).
  • Above-average yields are expected at about half of the sites, primarily across the western and eastern Corn Belt (Figure 2).

These yield forecasts do not consider other yield-limiting factors such as crop stand issues, storm damage, replanting, disease, or nutrient losses. Likewise, results can deviate with varying planting dates or hybrid maturities. Yield forecasts are not field-specific and represent an average yield estimate for a given location and surrounding area.

As corn harvest season approaches in Ohio, we wish you well.  


Grassini, P., Andrade, J., Rizzo, G., Yang, H., Rees, J., Coulter, J., Licht, M., Archontoulis, S., Ciampitti, I., Singh, M., & Ortez, O. (2023). Corn Yield Forecasts as of August 23. UNL Nebraska CropWatch. Available from:   


Crop Observation and Recommendation Network

C.O.R.N. Newsletter is a summary of crop observations, related information, and appropriate recommendations for Ohio crop producers and industry. C.O.R.N. Newsletter is produced by the Ohio State University Extension Agronomy Team, state specialists at The Ohio State University and the Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center (OARDC). C.O.R.N. Newsletter questions are directed to Extension and OARDC state specialists and associates at Ohio State.