Summary
Fall (September – November) 2023 ranks as the 13th driest fall on record for Ohio (1895-2023). This same dry pattern, along with warmer than average temperatures have continued through the first half of December (Figure 1). Temperatures through December 18th are running 1-3°F above average across southern Ohio and 3-6°F above average across our northern counties.
Generally speaking, most of the state has only seen 0.3-1.5” so far in December, with 2-2.5” across southeast Ohio. This is about 50-75% of normal across the bulk of the state, with pockets of 25-50% of normal in northwest, west central, and far southern Ohio. As of Thursday December 14, 2023, 41% of the state was described as at least abnromally dry with about 1% of the state in moderate drought conditions according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. For more information, check out the State Climate Office and sign up for our monthly and quarterly climate summaries.
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Figure 1: (left) Departure from 1991-2020 normal temperatures and (right) percent of normal precipitation for Dec 1 – 18, 2023. Figure courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center. |
Forecast
We are kicking the week off with northwesterly flow, snow squalls, and falling temperatures, as a cold front sweeps across Ohio. Tuesday will be drier except for snow showers downwind of Lake Erie, and it will be cold with highs mainly in the 30s and lows in the 20s. A slow warming trend will begin on Wednesday with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s, and we will add about 2-3 degrees onto our highs thoughout the week. Much of southern Ohio will reach the low to mid 50s over the Christmas weekend into Christmas day. There could be a few rain showers around on Friday and again on Christmas Day. The current forecast shows less than 0.10” of liquid-equivalent precipitation is expected this week across the state, with slightly greater totals with the heavier snow showers in northeast Ohio (Figure 2).
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Figure 2). Precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center for 7pm Monday December 18 – 7pm Monday December 25, 2023. |
The Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 Day Outlook and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center indicate strong probably that temperatures will remain above average with near average precipitation for the period December 26, 2023 – January 1, 2024 (Figure 3). The average high-temperature range is 36-41°F, the average low-temperature range is 23-26°F, and the average weekly total precipitation is 0.60-0.80 inch.
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Figure 3) Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Outlook valid for December 26, 2023 – January 1, 2024, for left) temperatures and right) precipitation. Colors represent the probability of below, normal, or above normal conditions. |