For Ohio, December 2023 ranks as the 2nd warmest December on record since 1895 and caps off the 4th warmest year on record over that same period. Dry weather was also the main story in December, ranking as the 45th driest December on record and continued a pattern we experienced over much of the fall. However, even with a weather pattern that typically brings a drier and warmer than average conditions in winter, cold outbreaks are bound to happen. This has certainly been the case over the past week, with temperatures plummeting into the single digits for lows and sub-zero wind chill values. Before the cold snap, widespread 1-3” of liquid-equivalent precipitation (rain and snow) fell across the state as well (Figure 1), helping to alleviate some of the dryness and lift rivers and streams back to normal seasonal levels. As of Thursday January 11, 2024, 47% of the state was described as at least abnromally dry with about 27% of the state in moderate drought conditions according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. With last week’s precipitation, improvements are likely when the new report is released later this week. For more information, check out the State Climate Office and sign up for our monthly and quarterly climate summaries.
Forecast
Frigid air remains in place early this week, but southwesterly flow on Tuesday and Wednesday will allow for a brief warm up with highs pushing back into the 20s for much of the state. Our next winter system is set to move in beginning Thursday afternoon through Friday, bringing periods of light, accumulating snow. Another shot of Arctic air will move in for the weekend, with highs falling back into the single digits and teens with overnight lows near zero. A more significant warming trend will begin early next week. The current forecast calls for between 0.10”and 0.25” of liquid-equivalent precipition over the next seven days, with much of this falling as snow (Figure 2).
The Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 Day Outlook and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center indicate a strong probability that temperatures will be above average with above average precipitation also expected for the period January 24 – 30, 2024 (Figure 3). The average high-temperature range is 33-38°F, the average low-temperature range is 18-23°F, and the average weekly total precipitation is 0.60-0.80 inch.
