Climate Summary
June was a warm month for Ohio, with temperatures averaging 1-3°F above the long-term mean (1991-2020). This was especially true for June 16-22, a 5-day stretch with daytime highs at or above 90°F. This was the second longest consecutive 90-degree day stretch for Toledo for the month of June. Growing degree days continue to run 120-180 days above normal, evident by the advanced growth in our crops across the state (tasseling corn, flowering beans, and early wheat harvest).
Precipitation has been a tale of extremes as well. Very heavy rainfall has occurred the last two weeks across northern counties (Figure 1), with reports of 5-8” (e.g., Fulton, Lake, and Ashtabula Counties). Counties along and south of about I-70 have picked up much less over this period, with areas running 25-50% of normal for the last 30 days. As of June 25, 2024, the US Drought Monitor depicts 21% of Ohio in D1-Moderate Drought Conditions. The driest areas are focused in the southwest, far southeast, and around the Cleveland and southern suburbs. Pasture conditions are starting to deteriorate in portions of south-central Ohio while crops stress has been minimal for most of the state. For the latest up-to-date conditions, seasonal outlooks, and monthly climate summaries, please visit the State Climate Office of Ohio.
Weather Forecast
Mild temperatures and low humidity levels are starting this week off just right. However, a warm front will move through on Tuesday brining with it highs in the 80s and 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday. A few late day showers and storms are possible on Wednesday, with widespread showers and storms expected for Thursday. A few storms could be severe so be weather aware during July 4th activities. Additional showers and storms are possible on Friday before a cold front sweeps moisture out of the area for the weekend. Temperatures will be close to seasonal normals for Thursday through Sunday, with highs generally in the 80s but overnight lows in the 60s and 70s. The Weather Prediction Center is currently forecasting 0.50-2.00” for the state over the next 7 days (Figure 2). The heaviest precipitation will be localized but does appear to concentrate across southern counties currently in need of water.
The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center show temperatures are likely to be above average with precipitation probability leaning toward wetter than average (Figure 3). Climate averages include a high-temperature range of 83-86°F, a low-temperature range of 60-66°F, and weekly total precipitation of 0.90-1.20”.
