Corn growth and development are progressing well across most of the state (Figure 1), though recent reports indicated limited rainfall and dry soil conditions potentially leading to crop stress in some areas. Despite the wide range of growth and stages across the state due to a wide planting date window this year, over 50% of corn fields have reached the silking stage, R1 (Figure 2).
Starting in mid-July 2024, the Yield Forecasting Center is providing corn phenology (stages) and forecasts of corn yield potential every few weeks. The center is led by a core team at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) that collaborates with agronomists and extension educators from universities throughout the Corn Belt. Forecasts can help researchers, growers, and industry stakeholders make management, logistics, and marketing decisions during the 2024 crop season. Forecasts cover 40 locations across the Corn Belt, including Western (South Charleston), Northwest (Custar), and Northeast (Wooster site) in Ohio (Figure 3).
This article summarizes the methodologies used to forecast corn phenology and yield and it provides guidelines for the interpretation of results. The first simulation for the 2024 end-of-season corn yield potential and crop stage was recently completed. Table 1 summarizes results for the state of Ohio as of July 23, 2024.
|
Location |
Long-term average yield (bu/ac) § |
Range of Yp forecasts as of Jul 23 (bu/ac)¶ 25th |
Range of Yp forecasts as of Jul 23 (bu/ac)¶ 75th |
The probability (%) of 2024 yield to be: Below (relative to the long-term Yp)† |
The probability (%) of 2024 yield to be: Near (relative to the long-term Yp)† |
The Probability (%) of 2024 yield to be: Above (relative to the long-term Yp)† |
Simulated crop stage* |
|
|
OH |
Custar 108-day hybrid May 17 planting |
231 |
218 |
239 |
15% |
74% |
10% |
R3, Milk |
|
South Charleston 112-day hybrid May 12 planting |
235 |
192 |
231 |
53% |
44% |
3% |
R3, Milk |
|
|
Wooster 106-day hybrid May 22 planting |
236 |
236 |
264 |
5% |
59% |
36% |
R1, Silking |
|
§ Long-term (last 20-plus years) potential yield at each location and surrounding area.
¶ Range of forecasted 2024 potential yields based on average planting date in 2024, indicating the potential yields in the 25th and 75th percentile of the potential yield distribution (associated with respective adverse and favorable weather scenarios during the rest of the season).
† Probability of obtaining a 2024 yield below (<-10%), near (±10%), and above (>10%) than the long-term potential yield at each location; or <-5%, ±5%, and >5% at each irrigated location, respectively.
It is still early to make strong inferences about yields in Ohio since corn is at early reproductive stages, but preliminary projections show (Figure 4):
- A 74% probability (+/-) of near average yield potential for Custar, OH.
- About a 50% probability (+/-) of near or below-average yield potential for South Charleston, OH.
- A 59% probability (+/-) of near average yield potential for Wooster, OH.
Crop conditions like temperature and water availability during August will dictate if the projections are maintained and what actual yields we get this year. The forecasts do not consider other yield-limiting factors such as crop stand issues, storm damage, replanting, disease, or nutrient losses. Results can deviate with varying planting dates or hybrid maturities. Yield forecasts are not field-specific and represent average yield estimates for locations and their surrounding areas.
As more corn yield and phenology forecasts become available this crop season, short briefs will be released via the OSU C.O.R.N. Newsletter.
References
Grassini, P., Andrade, J., Merlos, F., Yang, H., Rees, J., Coulter, J., Licht, M., Archontoulis, S., Ciampitti, I., Crawford, J., Singh, M., & Ortez, O. (2024). 2024 Corn Yield Forecasts: Approach and Interpretation of Results. UNL Nebraska CropWatch. Available from: https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2024/2024-corn-yield-forecasts-approach-and-interpretation-results
Grassini, P., Andrade, J., Merlos, F., Yang, H., Rees, J., Coulter, J., Licht, M., Archontoulis, S., Ciampitti, I., Crawford, J., Singh, M., Ortez, O., & Quinn, D. (2024). 2024 Corn Yield Forecasts as of July 23. UNL Nebraska CropWatch. Available from: https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2024/2024-corn-yield-forecasts-july-23