C.O.R.N. Newsletter: 2024-30
Breadcrumb Menu
-
Farm Science Review - Agronomy College
Author(s): Grant Davis, CCA -
Ohio Bakes Under the Late August Sun
Author(s): Aaron WilsonSummary
Daytime temperatures during the final week of August were blistering hot, running 5-10°F above average. Many locations throughout the week set daily records, with highs of 95-100°F. Rainfall was hard to come by as well, with precipitation running 5-25% of normal for many counties in central and east central Ohio over the last 14 days. June-August precipitation totaled less than 5 inches in many locations of east central and southeast Ohio. Last week’s U.S. Drought Monitor revealed D4-Exceptional Drought for the first time in Ohio (Meigs and Athens Counties) since the U.S. Drought Monitor’s inception in 2000 (Figure 1). The new update will be released at 8:30 am on Thursday September 5, 2024. Impacts are significant with very poor pasture conditions, low ponds, dry creeks, water hauling, and failing crops (no soybean fill, significant decreases in yield expected). The Hocking River at Athens hit a record low level and the least amount of flow since 1930 according to the USGS. To view local reports or submit one for your location, please visit the Condition Monitoring Observer Reports page. For a more detailed look at conditions and resources, visit our Drought Response Page or for the latest up-to-date conditions, seasonal outlooks, and monthly climate summaries, please visit the State Climate Office of Ohio.
Weather Forecast
Cooler, drier air has made its way to Ohio this past weekend, but temperatures will be on the rise this week, back into the mid to upper 80s by mid-week. A cold front is expected to move across the state on Friday, bringing with it showers and storms. Behind this front, colder air will move in once again, with highs in the 60s and 70s over the weekend, with lows back in the 40s and 50s. Weekly precipitation is forecast to range from 0.10-0.5” across southern Ohio, to as much as 1” across northeast counties (Figure 2).
The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center show near to above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation are expected (Figure 3). This will lead to continued worsening of drought conditions and increased field and combine fires as harvest season begins. Climate averages include a high-temperature range of 78-82°F, a low-temperature range of 57-60°F, and weekly total precipitation of about 0.75”.
-
Corn Yield Forecasts for Ohio as of August 27, 2024
Author(s): Osler OrtezThe last USDA Crop Progress & Condition report (week ending 8/25/24) indicated that 90% of Ohio's corn acreage had reached the dough stage (R4), 47% of corn was dented (R5), and 9% was mature (R6). All of it is well ahead of last year’s and the 5-year average for this time of the year.
Using the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model in collaboration with faculty and extension personnel from several partner universities, a new simulation of 2024 end-of-season corn yield potential and crop staging was completed on August 27. Forecasts help researchers, growers, and industry stakeholders to make management, logistics, and marketing decisions during the crop season. The forecast covered 43 locations across the Corn Belt, including Custar (Northwest), South Charleston (Western), and Wooster (Northeast), Ohio. Table 1 and Figure 1 summarize the current results.
Table 1. Simulations of 2024 end-of-season corn yield potential and crop stage on August 27, Ohio. Adapted from Grassini et al., 2024.
Location
Long-term average yield potential (bu/ac)§
Range of Yp forecasts as of Aug. 27 (bu/ac)¶ 25th
Range of Yp forecasts as of Aug. 27 (bu/ac)¶ 75th
The probability (%) of 2024 yield to be: Below (relative to the long-term Yp)†
The probability (%) of 2024 yield to be: Near (relative to the long-term Yp)†
The Probability (%) of 2024 yield to be: Above (relative to the long-term Yp)†
Simulated Crop Stage
Custar
34,000 plants/Ac108-day hybrid
May 17 planting
231
223
233
0%
100%
0%
R5, Dent
South Charleston
34,000 plants/Ac112-day hybrid
May 12 planting
235
205
214
62%
38%
0%
R5, Dent
Wooster
33,000 plants/Ac106-day hybrid
May 22 planting
236
255
275
0%
38%
62%
R4, Dough
§ Long-term (last 20-plus years) potential yield at each location and surrounding area.
¶ Range of forecasted 2024 potential yields based on average planting date in 2024, indicating the potential yields in the 25th and 75th percentile of the potential yield distribution (associated with respective adverse and favorable weather scenarios during the rest of the season).
† Probability of obtaining a 2024 yield below (<-10%), near (±10%), and above (>10%) than the long-term potential yield at each location; or <-5%, ±5%, and >5% at each irrigated location, respectively.This article summarizes the methodologies used to forecast corn phenology and yield. Based on current forecasts, preliminary projections show (Figure 1):
- A 100% probability (+/-) of near average yield potential for Custar, OH.
- A 62% probability (+/-) of below average yield potential for South Charleston, OH.
- A 62% probability (+/-) of above average yield potential for Wooster, OH.
Figure 1. On the left figure, simulated developmental stage for rainfed corn at each location (left figure). R1: silking; R2: blister; R3: milk; R4: dough; R5: dent; R6: physiological maturity.
On the right figure, probability of the 2024 yield potential to be below, near, and above the long-term (2005-2023) average yield potential at each location. Larger color sections within the pie chart indicate higher probability that end-of-season corn yield will be in that category. Adapted from Grassini et al., 2024.Summary
As of August 27, 2024, the projected results for Ohio show optimistic yields for Wooster, neutral projections for Northwest (near average), and lower yields for Western. These projections are in agreement with the recently dry conditions that have affected many areas in the state, especially the southern region. By August 27, 75% of the state of Ohio was abnormally dry or worse. Corn begins to scale down its water use as the crop approaches maturity. With most of Ohio’s acreage at the dough or dent stages now, we can expect a smaller effect of drought on grain yields relative to if drought had come in earlier in the season. Given the faster crop progress and dryer conditions, corn harvest is expected earlier this year.Adequate solar radiation, temperatures, and precipitation during the rest of the grain fill period will determine the final outputs (especially grain weight). These yield forecasts do not consider other yield-limiting factors such as crop stand issues, storm damage, replanting, disease, or nutrient losses. Likewise, results can deviate with varying planting dates or hybrid maturities. Yield forecasts are not field-specific and represent an average yield estimate for a given location and surrounding area.
References
Grassini, P., Andrade, J., Merlos, F., Yang, H., Rees, J., Coulter, J., Licht, M., Archontoulis, S., Ciampitti, I., Crawford, J., Singh, M., Ortez, O., & Quinn, D. (2024). 2024 Corn Yield Forecasts as of Aug. 27. UNL Nebraska CropWatch. Available from: https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2024/2024-corn-yield-forecasts-aug-27
Grassini, P., Andrade, J., Merlos, F., Yang, H., Rees, J., Coulter, J., Licht, M., Archontoulis, S., Ciampitti, I., Crawford, J., Singh, M., & Ortez, O. (2024). 2024 Corn Yield Forecasts: Approach and Interpretation of Results. UNL Nebraska CropWatch. Available from: https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2024/2024-corn-yield-forecasts-approach-and-interpretation-results
-
Battle for the Belt: Season 2, Episode 23 - Interview with Tom Fontana from Ohio Soybean Council
Episode 23 of Battle for the Belt is now available: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cf-z4Bv8bMY
In this episode, we are with Tom Fontana, the Director of Research and Education for the Ohio Soybean Council. We discuss the function of the Ohio Soybean Council and the various projects that are funded by Ohio checkoff dollars, including Battle for the Belt.
What is the soybean checkoff?
The soybean checkoff has been around for a little over thirty years. The checkoff is federal and managed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and is essentially farmers funding their own research projects. For every bushel of soybeans sold in Ohio, a half of percent of the revenue goes to the soybean council. That half of percent is split between Ohio and the national organization, the United Soybean Board. The Ohio Soybean Council board is made up of volunteer farmers and the council staff, and the farmers make the final decisions on how the checkoff dollars are being spent. The money collected in Ohio goes to research, marketing, promotion, and education. None of the checkoff dollars can be used for lobbying or advocacy work, which is why they have another organization called the Ohio Soybean Association that is membership driven.
Current funded projects
Battle for the Belt is a checkoff funded project that is very important right now because it is the top of mind for farmers. Producers are very interested in planting date and the yield benefits and penalties for certain planting dates. The checkoff funds soybean cyst nematode work and has been for some time now. The work on this soybean issue is not done yet as this is a number one yield robber for soybeans in the U.S. The checkoff is also funding various soils research with research at Ohio State University as well.
Student funding opportunities
Much of the checkoff funding is for student support.
The checkoff funds students and research through a few different ways. The first is through traditional research projects. Then there is a program for graduate students to submit proposals to fund smaller research projects, allowing students to practice writing and submitting proposals and manage smaller amounts of grant money. There is also a scholarship program for undergraduate and graduate students awarding 9 undergraduate scholarships and 3 graduate scholarships every year. This past year, seven graduate students were awarded scholarships because the council wanted to support more students who are doing tremendous work.
The Ohio Soybean Council aims to support students in agriculture as the industry will need its best and brightest to move forward.
Thank you to the Ohio Soybean Council and Ohio farmers for funding Battle for the Belt as we aim to bring Ohio farmers up to date research on planting date, planting priority, and agronomic recommendations.
What’s happening in the field?
At the Western location, the heat has moved the corn along, closer to being ready to harvest. Planting date one and two are at R6, with some hybrids in planting date three reaching R6 but on average still at R5. Planting date four is at R4 and planting date five is at R2. Some ear diseases have been found like diplodia (Figure 1), in corn planted on the first date. We will take a closer look at these diseases at harvest.
For soybean, the first three planting dates are all at R6, which is “full seed” (Figure 2). The first planting date is midway between R6 and R7 (one pod on the plant has reached its mature color). Planting date four and five are at the beginning of R5.
Northwest
Thankfully, the Northwest location received rain last week. All of the soybeans are in various parts of the R5 growth stage. The soybeans tend to linger in this pod fill period for a few weeks, so there is usually overlap in this stage with every planting date. The corn has planting date 1 at R5, planting date two at R4, planting date three at R3, planting date four at R2, and planting date five at R1.
Wooster
The Wooster location also received rain last week! All of the soybeans at this location are also at R5, except for planting date one which reached R6. The corn stages for planting date one through five are as follows: R5, R5, R4, R3, R1.
The summary of locations, last week’s weather, planting dates, GDDs and stages is presented in Table 1.
Table 1. Weekly weather conditions for each planting date at the Western Agricultural Research Station, Northwest Agricultural Research Station, and Wooster Campus, with the day of planting, soil, air temperature averages, and Growing Degree Days (GDDs) from August 26th to September 1st. Information from CFAES Weather System (https://weather.cfaes.osu.edu/).
-
New Video Series Launches from OSU Extension
Author(s): Clint Schroeder, Rachel Cochran, CCA/CPAgThis morning marked the release of Episode 1 for a new series, titled ‘Green Fields Green Dollars’, hosted by Ohio State University Extension staff members Rachel Cochran and Clint Schroeder. Rachel Cochran is the Water Quality Extension Associate serving Paulding, Defiance, and Van Wert counties in Northwest Ohio, and Clint Schroeder is the Program Manager of the Farm Business Analysis and Benchmarking Statewide Program. This series was developed to discuss common conservation agriculture practices in a new light – one with an economic perspective.
In her role, Cochran conducts research and shares education, both one-on-one with local producers and at larger-scale events such as field days, on practices that are known to promote better soil health, nutrient management, and water quality on farms across the state. Schroeder utilizes a special software called FINPACK to assist farm operators with determining the profitability and economic health of their business and individual enterprises. This data is compiled as part of the national database that can be used to highlight economics differences related to certain agricultural practices. The two, who are cohosts for this new series, came together to discuss benefits of conservation, both environmentally and economically.
Episode 1, titled ‘Cover Crop Direct Costs’, dives into some of the benefits and considerations of implementing this practice, and shares real-life data from farms across the Midwest to show how much cover crops actually cost to implement. Episode 2, which will be released later this month, will discuss more benefits of cover crops, as well as yield impacts, ecosystem services, and other financial aspects you may not have thought to ponder before. Episode 1 can be viewed on the OSU Agronomy Team YouTube channel, or by visiting go.osu.edu/GFGD.
-
Lep Monitoring Network – Fall Armyworm Update and Last Week of Corn Earworm Reports # 19
Author(s): Stephanie Pflaum, Amy Raudenbush, Trevor Corboy, Mary Jo Hassen, Clifton Martin, CCA, Frank Thayer, Kyle Verhoff, Brooks Warner, Jacob Winters, Kayla Wyse, Curtis Young, CCA, Andy Michel, Kelley TilmonThis past week was our 20th week of monitoring for Ohio pests at the Lep Network. This week was our 4th week reporting on the fall armyworm (FAW), with numbers remaining high in certain counties. If your county has a surplus of fall armyworm pests, we recommend continuing to scout for egg masses and larva in the coming weeks.
Fall Armyworm
The statewide average for FAW this past week has decreased from 27.1 for the week ending August 25th to 16.6 for the week ending September 1st. Counties with the highest averages are Sandusky (125), Van Wert (36.1) and Wayne (15.0) (Figure 1).
The fall armyworm is a sporadic corn, sorghum, small grain, pasture grass, and forage crop pest. This armyworm is a tropical pest that overwinters in warm soil in the southern US. Since this is a sporadic pest, infestations are infrequent, yet can be damaging when they occur. The last FAW outbreak seen in Ohio was recorded in 2021 where damage from this moth has substantial effects on alfalfa, clover, turfgrass, fall cover crops and small grain fields. Since we are only at the beginning of the season for FAW, scouting should be focused primarily on egg masses and larva.
For more information on the fall armyworm, visit our factsheet on FAW: https://ohioline.osu.edu/factsheet/ent-0093
Fall armyworm moth map
Week 4
August 26th to September 1st, 2024
Figure 1. Average fall armyworm (FAW) moths captured from August 26th to Sept 1st. The bold number on the left indicates the average moth count for the week, followed by the standard number on the right which indicates the total number of active traps set up in that county.
-
See You at the Farm Science Review!
Join us at the 2024 Farm Science Review, September 17 – 19 at the Molly Caren Agricultural Center. We will be displaying a snapshot of research projects conducted throughout Ohio in the Agronomic Crops plot area. Find us between Gates B and C upon entering the FSR grounds from the East Parking Lot. Listen in on ‘Tailgate Talks’ with Ohio State University Extension specialists.
The OSU Extension Agronomic Crops Team Plots this year feature a wide range of topics, including biostimulants, irrigation and nitrogen management, Battle for the Belt planting date study, and more. You can even test your weed and insect ID knowledge to win a prize. Learn more about our plot area at go.osu.edu/agcropsplots.
Make sure to also stop in for our Tailgate Talks (see schedule below). These in-field sessions will include information from our State and Field Specialists and an opportunity to interact and have your questions answered. Topics will include weed management, drone technology, and more. Certified Crop Adviser credits will be available.
Day
Time
Speaker & Topic
Tuesday
10:30 a.m.
Asmita Murumkar
Water Quality and Soil Health Benefits
3:00 p.m.
Alyssa Essman
Weed Management
Wednesday
3:00 p.m.
Laura Lindsey, Osler Ortez & Taylor Dill
Battle for the Belt – Corn vs. Soybeans
Thursday
3:00 p.m.
John Fulton & Alex Thomas
Drone Inter-seeding of Cover Crops
Presale tickets may be purchased online at fsr.osu.edu or participating OSU Extension county offices through Monday, September 16 for $10 per ticket. The at-the-gate ticket price is $15. Children ages five and under are admitted free. Parking is free. FSR hours are 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Sept. 17-18 and 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. September 19.
Crop Observation and Recommendation Network
C.O.R.N. Newsletter is a summary of crop observations, related information, and appropriate recommendations for Ohio crop producers and industry. C.O.R.N. Newsletter is produced by the Ohio State University Extension Agronomy Team, state specialists at The Ohio State University and the Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center (OARDC). C.O.R.N. Newsletter questions are directed to Extension and OARDC state specialists and associates at Ohio State.
Contributors
Disclaimer
The information presented here, along with any trade names used, is supplied with the understanding that no discrimination is intended and no endorsement is made by Ohio State University Extension is implied. Although every attempt is made to produce information that is complete, timely, and accurate, the pesticide user bears responsibility of consulting the pesticide label and adhering to those directions.
CFAES provides research and related educational programs to clientele on a nondiscriminatory basis. For more information, visit cfaesdiversity.osu.edu. For an accessible format of this publication, visit cfaes.osu.edu/accessibility.