Drought in Ohio has been a major concern for a while now and most indicators suggest drought will expand then persist at least through October-November. The latest drought status of the Drought Monitor can be found here: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?OH
This will continue to impact everything in agriculture from crops, speciality crops and water levels.
Lake levels are now dropping across Ohio and could reach winter pool drawdown levels early on their own. Some lakes now have zero inflow. Many rivers are running very low and some are nearing record low flows. This likely will persist into October.
Back in April we talked about the concern for dryness this summer and fall as in the article we said, " In addition, we expect some dryness to expand as summer progresses and La Niña develops with confidence higher for dryness in June and August/September timeframes at this point."
Our driest months for much of the region were June (first three weeks), August and September. La Niña has not developed yet but is projected to in the next few months though it looks to be rather weak. What this means is dryness likely lasts through at least the first half of harvest season and possibly much of harvest season with the first hard freeze likely being delayed until the second half of October at least.
For the rest of September, expect above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall to continue. Many places will see little if any rain for the rest of September.
October is forecast to remain warmer and drier than normal, especially the first half, see attached graphic from NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the first half of October rainfall outlook. With crops drying out fast, this should lead to opportunities for early harvest where crops were able to mature properly.
November still looks warm but not as dry with some rain returning. The bottom line, we liely will have to wait until at least November for any drought relief.
The latest data says this La Niña will be fairly weak this winter and would likely end by spring quickly. Therefore, this winter we will likely start milder than normal again and finish chilly but any wet signal appears marginal. Depending on how much wetter we get this winter will determine how much the drought improves in Ohio and where we will stand going into next spring.
