2024 End-of-Season Corn Yield Forecasts for Ohio

The last USDA Crop Progress & Condition report (week ending 9/29/24) indicated that 96% of Ohio's corn acreage was at the dented stage (R5), 70% of corn was mature (R6), and 16% was harvested for grain. All of last week’s progress was well ahead of 2023 and the 5-year average for this time of the year. On the same report, 6% of corn was rated as very poor, 17% as poor, 38% as fair, 36% as good, and only 3% as excellent.

Using the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model in collaboration with faculty and extension personnel from several partner universities, the final simulation of 2024 end-of-season corn yield potential and crop staging was completed on September 17. The forecast covered 43 locations across the Corn Belt, including Custar (Northwest), South Charleston (Western), and Wooster (Northeast), Ohio. Table 1 and Figure 1 summarize the results.

Table 1. Simulations of 2024 end-of-season corn yield potential and crop stage on September 17, Ohio. Adapted from Grassini et al., 2024.

§ Long-term (last 20-plus years) potential yield at each location and surrounding area.
¶ Range of forecasted 2024 potential yields based on average planting date in 2024, indicating the potential yields in the 25th and 75th percentile of the potential yield distribution (associated with respective adverse and favorable weather scenarios during the rest of the season).
† Probability of obtaining a 2024 yield below (<-10%), near (±10%), and above (>10%) than the long-term potential yield at each location; or <-5%, ±5%, and >5% at each irrigated location, respectively.

Based on the 2024 end-of-season yield forecast, projections showed (Table 1; Figure 1):

• Very high probability (+/-) of near average yield potential for Custar, OH. The estimated 2024 end-of-season yield potential was 229 bu/ac.
• Very high probability (+/-) of below average yield potential for South Charleston, OH. The estimated 2024 end-of-season yield potential was 197 bu/ac.
• A 79% probability (+/-) of above average yield potential for Wooster, OH. The 2024 corn has not matured at this location yet. The long-term average yield potential for Wooster is 236 bu/ac.

Summary
The 2024 end-of-season corn yield forecasts in Ohio showed optimistic yields for Wooster (high chances for above average yield potential), neutral projections for Northwest (near average yield potential), and lower yields for Western (very high chances of below average yield potential). These projections are in agreement with the extended drought that affected many areas in the state during the second half of the grain filling period, especially the southern region. These yield forecasts do not consider other yield-limiting factors such as crop stand issues, storm damage, replanting, disease, or nutrient losses. Results can deviate with varying planting dates or hybrid maturities. Yield forecasts are not field-specific and represent an average yield estimate for a given location and surrounding area.

References

Grassini, P., Andrade, J., Merlos, F., Yang, H., Rees, J., Coulter, J., Licht, M., Archontoulis, S., Ciampitti, I., Crawford, J., Singh, M., Ortez, O., & Quinn, D. (2024). 2024 Corn Yield Forecasts: End-of-Season Forecasts Suggest Near to Above-Average Yields for the Region. UNL Nebraska CropWatch. Available from: https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2024/2024-corn-yield-forecasts-end-season-forecasts-suggest-near-above-average-yields-region  

Grassini, P., Andrade, J., Merlos, F., Yang, H., Rees, J., Coulter, J., Licht, M., Archontoulis, S., Ciampitti, I., Crawford, J., Singh, M., & Ortez, O. (2024). 2024 Corn Yield Forecasts: Approach and Interpretation of Results. UNL Nebraska CropWatch. Available from: https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2024/2024-corn-yield-forecasts-approach-and-interpretation-results