Climate Summary
Wet conditions returned to the northern tier of counties this week, where 0.3-2.55 inches of rain fell in showers and storms associated with a strong autumn cold front. This has helped knock down some of the dust kicked up by harvesting dry fields across northwest Ohio. Since the remnants of Hurricane Helene on September 27, much of the southern two-thirds of state has remained dry. Cooler temperatures have kept drought stress from worsening, but without meaningful precipitation, drought conditions persist. While pastures have greened up, the lack of precipitation is keeping soil moisture deficits around, creeks and rivers running on the lower end of historical records, and livestock producers hauling water in southeast Ohio. As of October 8, 2024, the US Drought Monitor depicts approximately 8% of the state in D4 - exceptional drought with about 65% of the state still experiencing drought conditions (D1-D4).
If you are continuing to experience drought impacts or to document improvements, you can view or submit local reports at the Condition Monitoring Observer Reports page. For a more detailed look at conditions and resources, visit our Drought Response Page or for the latest up-to-date conditions, seasonal outlooks, and monthly climate summaries, please visit the State Climate Office of Ohio.
Weather Forecast
The week is starting out much cooler, with gusty northwesterly winds and high temperatures only in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Scattered showered and storms are possible through Tuesday, with the greatest chance across northeast Ohio. Overnight lows on Wednesday and Thursday mornings will flirt with and possibly drop below the freezing mark (32°F), marking the first widespread frost/freeze conditions for the state. For northern Ohio, this is about the average time the first freeze occurs. For central and southern Ohio, only about 10-20% of the time do we experience a freeze this early (e.g., Dayton, Cincinnati, Columbus, Athens). High pressure will take control of our weather for Wednesday through Sunday, with mosly sunny skies and temperatures warming back into the 60s and 70s by the weekend. The Weather Prediction Center is currently forecasting less than 0.25” of rain for most of the state, with localized amounts of up to 1.5” in northeast Ohio (Figure 2).
After this brief cool spell and warming trend this weekend, the 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center show strong probability for above normal temperatures and near to below normal precipitation (Figure 3). Climate averages include a high-temperature range of 62-66°F, a low-temperature range of 42-45°F, and weekly total precipitation of 0.55-0.7”.
