Climate Summary
Despite improving drought conditions throughout the winter, longer-term dry signals persisted in northwest and southeast Ohio. Precipitation over the last 30 days has ranged from 1.5 inches in parts of northwest and eastern Ohio, to more than 5 inches in southwest Ohio. This represents less than 75% of normal precipitation for March in these drier spots, while the bulk of the I-71 corridor has averaged above normal. Overall, the latest US Drought Monitor shows about 38% of the state is depicting abnormally dry conditions.
As far as temperatures are concerned, after a cold January and February, conditions were much warmer in March. Temperatures averaged 3-8°F above the long-term average (1991-2020). This has led to warmer soil temperatures as well. Daily average 2-inch and 4-inches temperatures are running in the low to mid 40s across northern Ohio, mid to upper 40s across central counties, and in the low 50s in the south (e.g., Piketon). For more complete weather records for CFAES research stations, including temperature, precipitation, growing degree days, and other useful weather observations, please visit https://www.oardc.ohio-state.edu/weather1/. For the latest up-to-date conditions, seasonal outlooks, and monthly climate summaries, please visit the State Climate Office of Ohio.
Weather Forecast
A significant and potentially dangerous weather situation is setting up this week. First, cool temperatures will persist on Tuesday, before a warm up into the 70s and 80s occurs on Wednesday. This will lead to strong to severe storms for mid-week as well. The front will stall across the Ohio Valley, providing an axis of moisture for Thursday through Sunday. Mutiple rounds of showers and storms are likely. Heavy rain is possible, especially across southwest Ohio. The National Weather Service is currently forecasting 3-4 inches of rain for northern and eastern Ohio, with a broad area of 4-8 inches in central and southern Ohio (Figure 2). If materialized, this will lead to widespread areas of flash and areal flooding with major rises on rivers throughout the state. The Ohio River Forecast Center predicts a 30% chance of moderate to major flooding for Ohio.
The 6-10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center show strong probability of cooler than average temperatures with precipitation leaning toward drier than normal (Figure 3). Climate averages include a high-temperature range of 55-60°F, a low-temperature range of 35-40°F, and weekly total precipitation of 0.80-1.00 inch.
