Climate Summary
After the state’s deluge to begin April, precipitation has generally underperformed forecasts over that last couple of weeks. Totals over the last seven days show three primary tracks of heavier rainfall: one across northwest Ohio, one from Mercer to Mahoning County, and a third across far southern Ohio (Figure 1). These areas remain soggy despite warmer and windier conditions of late. Frequent frost and freeze conditions last week (typical for mid-April in Ohio) have given way to a string of warmer days and nights, bumping growing degree days (base 50) up to a range bewteen 155 near Ashtabula to more than 300 across southern Ohio. Soil moisture and stream flows are decent to health, with daily average soil temperatures ranging from the low to mid 50s across the north to near 60 in southen Ohio. For the latest up-to-date conditions, seasonal outlooks, and monthly climate summaries, please visit the State Climate Office of Ohio.
Weather Forecast
The weather pattern this week is expected to remain fairly active with systems moving through every 2-3 days. A cold front crossed the state on Monday, sweeping showers out of the area through Thursday. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday should be in the 60s and 70s with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. Southerly flow by the end of the week could bring a few late day showers to the region on Thursday with a good chance of rain on Friday. Temperatures will climb well into the 70s to low 80s for the end of the week before cooling back into the 60s for the weekend. Our next system then looks to enter the region by Monday. The National Weather Service is currently forecasting 0.5-1 inch of precipitation for Ohio over the next 7 days (Figure 2).
The 6-10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center show strong probability of above normal temperatures with near or leaning toward slightly wetter than average conditions (Figure 3). Climate averages include a high-temperature range of 63-68°F, a low-temperature range of 42-46°F, and weekly total precipitation of 0.80-1.00 inch.
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