Climate Summary
Precipitation over the last week has been hit or miss. Although systems have moved through at a pace of every 2-3 days, some areas received much more rain than others (Figure 1). Particularly hard hit this week was northeast Ohio, where a swath of 2-5 inches of rain fell from eastern Medina County through Trumbull County. Pockets of heavy rain were also felt in Paulding, parts of west central Ohio (with a tornado reported near Greenville), and a few counties across the south. Temperatures were mild this past week with reports of scattered frost, but no major freeze events occurred. Growing degree days (base 50) now range from about 220 units in Ashtabula to more than 425 across southern Ohio. Daily average soil temperatures range from the upper 50s across the north to the low 60s in southen counties. Soil moisture and stream flows are elvated in the Cincinnati area but close to normal elsewhere. For the latest up-to-date conditions, seasonal outlooks, and monthly climate summaries, please visit the State Climate Office of Ohio.
Weather Forecast
The weather pattern this week offers several chances of rainfall but not everyone will see rain each day. A strong cold front with windy conditions on Tuesday will lead to some showers and storms. A few storms could be severe with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Highs will soar into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the state. Cooler air will filter in on Wednesday with a few scattered showers possible across the south. Thursday will be another breezy day with scattered showers and storms likely as another cold front moves toward Ohio. This front will move through on Friday with scattered showers possible. The weekend will be dominated by high pressure with drier and cooler conditions. Patchy frost cannot be ruled out both Saturday and Sunday mornings. Overall, the the National Weather Service is currently forecasting 0.5-1.5 inches of precipitation for Ohio over the next 7 days, with higher isolated amounts with some thunderstorms (Figure 2).
The 6-10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center show strong probability of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation (Figure 3). Climate averages include a high-temperature range of 66-70°F, a low-temperature range of 46-50°F, and weekly total precipitation of 0.90-1.10 inches.
