June 1 is the meteorological start of summer, and I think we are all hoping for much warmer conditions than we have experienced lately. Temperatures in Ohio during May ran 2-4°F below average. This led to accumulated growing degree days since May 1 running 60-90 GDDs below normal. The other big weather story has been the wet conditions, especially for southern and eastern Ohio. Another widespread 1-2 inches this past week has those areas running much above normal for the past month (Figure 1). Counties in the far west have been below normal in quantity of rainfall over the last 30 days, but this masks the very few stretches of dry weather that we have seen. Most locations had a least a trace of rainfall on 18-21 days of May, with an average suitable fieldwork total of 2 days per week during the month.
Finally, this past week has featured several days with occluded sunshine due to elevated wildfire smoke across our skies. While not close to the quantity that we experienced in 2023, concerns are being heard. It is important to know that May and June solar radiation is not strongly correlated with crop yields. As described in 2023, wildfire smoke can impact crop growth on a limited basis, but this depends on other environmental conditions and whether smoke is present at the surface or not. For a more detailed analysis of 2023, check out this article from Lindsey et al. 2024. For the latest up-to-date conditions, seasonal outlooks, and monthly climate summaries, please visit the State Climate Office of Ohio.
Weather Forecast
High pressure will remain in control early this week, with much warmer conditions expected across the state. Filtered sunshine due to the continued presence of wildfire smoke is expected, but temperatures will jump up in the low to mid 80s on Tuesday and mid to upper 80s on Wednesday. An approaching front will likely lead to a few showers and storms Wednesday night. Periods of showers and storms are likely on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will remain mild with highs in the 70s and 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Lingering showers are likely over the weekend as well. Overall, the National Weather Service is currently forecasting 1-2 inches of rain for much of the state over the next seven days, with locally heavier totals, especially in the west (Figure 2).
The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for the period of June 10-16 and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center show probabilities leaning toward above normal temperatures and precipitation (Figure 3). Climate averages include a high-temperature range of 77-81°F, a low-temperature range of 57-61°F, and weekly total precipitation of 0.90-1.15 inches.
