Climate Summary
Slow drought improvement continued this week for portions of southwest and northeast Ohio. Heavy lake effect rain showers across Ashtabula, Geauga, and Lake Counties brought 2.5 to 6 inches of rain this past week, with lighter amounts falling over the eastern two-thirds of Ohio. While October has been wet for these areas, much lighter amounts (less than 40% of normal) have fallen in northwest Ohio (Figure 1). There, drought conditions remain significant despite the cooler weather. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor Report shows approximately 10% of the state is in D3-extreme drought conditions, all in northwest Ohio. While field reports of fires and dust have waned, depleted soil mositure and historically low river flows continue. In other weather news, all but far southern Ohio and locations in the Scioto Valley have experienced their first freeze conditions, ending the 2025 growing season. Please consider submitting your observations to the National Drought Mitigation Center’s Condition Monitoring Observer Reports platform. For the latest drought conditions and agricultural resources, please visit our Drought Conditions and Resources page or the State Climate Office of Ohio.
Weather Forecast
Seasonally chilly temperatures look like they stick around for a while. The week starts with a mix of clouds and sunshine and high temperatures in the 50s. Rain showers are currently located just to our south in Kentucky, but much of this moisture will not reach our state. Our next system will approach the region for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing periods of widespread rain showers and higher temperatures in the 40s. Some of the rain could be heavy across southern and eastern Ohio. Additional disturbances will rotate through the region over the weekend keeping breezy and showery weather around. Highs will remain in the mid-40s to low 50s through Sunday. The National Weather Service is currenly forecasting 1-3 inches of rain for most areas outside of northwest Ohio, with lighter amounts for Celina, Lima, Findlay and points north (Figure 2).
The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for the period of November 4 – 10, 2025 and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center near to below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation are probable (Figure 3). Climatological normals for this period include a high-temperature range of 58-62°F, a low-temperature range of 38-42°F, and weekly total precipitation of ~0.75 inches.
