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Delayed Wheat Germination and Emergence Due to Dry Soil in Northwest Ohio

Figure 1. U.S. drought monitor for October 28, 2025 (https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?OH).

Drought conditions continue to persist in northwest Ohio (Figure 1). Although winter wheat was planted timely, dry soil conditions are limiting germination and emergence (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Wheat seed in dry soil from Northwest Ohio (Photo credit: Dusty Sonnenberg.)

Historically, wheat planted 28 days after the Hessian fly-free date (roughly third week of October in northwest Ohio) was thought to yield approximately 23% lower compared to wheat planted around the fly-free date (Figure 3). Wheat planted 42 days after the fly-free date (roughly the first week of November in northwest Ohio) was thought to yield approximately 75% lower compared to wheat planted around the fly-free date. These historical projections originated from a wheat planting date study in Wooster, Ohio, conducted between 1969-1975. However, over the past 75 years, most Ohio counties have shown a trend to later first fall freeze dates (https://mrcc.purdue.edu/freeze/freezedatetool), allowing winter wheat to be planted later in the fall.

Figure 3. Effect of planting date on wheat yield from Ohio Agronomy Guide. (Original data from Wooster, Ohio, 1969-1975.)

With funding from Ohio Corn and Wheat, we’ve re-evaluated wheat planting dates over the past four growing seasons, with planting dates ranging from September 13 through November 10. Planting wheat within two weeks after the county fly-free date generally resulted in the highest and most consistent grain yield (Figure 4). Although, in some years, we’ve planted wheat four weeks after the fly-free date with no yield penalties. Wheat planted five to eight weeks after the fly-free date resulted in a 10 to 15% reduction in yield.

Figure 4. Effect of planting date on wheat yield with revised yield outcomes using data from Wood County, 2022-2025.

In our research from Wood County, when wheat was planted late October or early November, there were very few (or no) plants going into winter dormancy (Figure 5). However, higher seeding rates in delayed plantings were able to minimize the yield gap when compared to timely wheat planting even though the majority of stems were produced in the spring. This year, with dry soil, farmers may be concerned about delayed germination and emergence; however, our research over the past four years has shown wheat can be planted extremely late and incur a relatively small yield penalty compared to historic yield projections. This spring, it will be important to scout wheat fields and assess plant stand to help inform management decisions.

Figure 5. Number of wheat stems per square foot by planting date and seeding rate in Wood County during the 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 growing seasons.

Reference:

Senenayaka Mudiyanselage, P., Baik, B.-K., and Lindsey, L.E. (2025). Planting date and seeding rate effects on soft red winter wheat. Agronomy Journal, 117, e70099.  

https://doi.org/10.1002/agj2.70099

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C.O.R.N. Newsletter is a summary of crop observations, related information, and appropriate recommendations for Ohio crop producers and industry. C.O.R.N. Newsletter is produced by the Ohio State University Extension Agronomy Team, state specialists at The Ohio State University and the Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center (OARDC). C.O.R.N. Newsletter questions are directed to Extension and OARDC state specialists and associates at Ohio State.