Current Conditions
As 2025 draws to a close and weenter into meteorological winter (December – February), let us assess current conditions around the state. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Report, drought is still very much present across northwest Ohio (Figure 1). Approximately 17% of Ohio is in drought (D1-D3), with just over 8% in D3-extreme drought. Even though many of the agricultural drought indicators we rely on to monitor drought throughout the growing season have diminished, the hydrologic (water-related) impacts remain. Precipitation deficits over the last 180 days (June 3 – November 29) are 9 to 12 inches below normal in far northern Mercer, Van Wert, southern Paulding, and southern Henry Counties. This has led to persistently low soil moisture in the top 8 inches of the profile and significantly low rivers, streams, ponds, and resevoirs across the hardest hit areas. The Maumee River at Waterville in southern Lucas County has a 28-day average streamflow of 2% compared to historical streamflow this time of year, meaning only 2% of its 90-year record saw levels below current levels. Remember, you can always submit drought observations with the National Drought Mitigation Center’s Condition Monitoring Observer Reports platform. For the latest drought conditions and agricultural resources, please visit our Drought Conditions and Resources page or the State Climate Office of Ohio.
Temperatures for November were close to or below normal statewide. It was a more active month compared to earlier in the fall. At the time of this writing, Ohio had just experienced another in a series of winter storms during November, with snowfall accumulations of 2-6 inches across northwest Ohio. This will eventually melt and contribute to slowly improving soil moisture, though it will take a while for drought conditions to completely diminish. The Lake Erie snowbelt has been active for a couple of weeks as well with up to 15 inches of snow already in spots. Overall, a snowier-than-normal November was experienced for the western half of Ohio and the Lake Erie snowbelt. However, total liquid-equivalent precipitation (rain and melted snow combined) was much below normal for all but the southern tier of counties.
Short-term Outlook
Additional light snow is likely for the week ahead (December 1 – 7) with continued cold conditions. In fact, overnight lows may dip into the single digits on Friday morning, and wind chills are likely to fall below zero at times for Thursday and Friday. The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for the period of December 7 - 13, 2025 and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center show below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation are probable (Figure 2). Climatology for this period indicates a normal high-temperature range of 42-46°F, a low-temperature range of 26-30°F, and weekly total precipitation of 0.65 to 0.85 inches.
Winter (December 2025 – February 2026) Outlook
One of the main climate signals meteorologists look for when making seasonal predictions of weather is the state of the tropical Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. When the sea surface temperatures are cooler than normal, this is called a La Niña. They tend to strengthen in fall, persist through the winter, and weaken in spring. During a La Niña event, winter months feature a wave-like jet stream flow across the United States and Canada, with colder and stormier than average conditions across the nothern U.S. and warmer and less stormier conditions across the south (Figure 3). This creates weather conditions that lead to wetter than normal winters across the Ohio Valley, but other factors at play (in the tropics and Arctic) can influence the weather over shorter timescales. Most often, this creates highly variable conditions in Ohio with large swings in temperature and a few significant precipitation makers (rain, snow, ice, and wind).
The active weather pattern that began in November this year is a clear sign that La Niña’s influlence over Ohio’s weather is taking shape. With this in mind, the three-month December – February Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center reflects typical La Niña winter conditions. For Ohio, this means equal chances for below, above, or near normal temperatures with a strong probability for above normal precipitation (Figure 4). Again, La Niña’s typically bring large temperature changes week to week with fluctuations between above and below normal throughout the winter. Whether we see snow or rain is controlled by how much cold air is present at the time the weather systems pass through the region. With the ongoing drought conditions in northwest Ohio, this year’s seasonal prediction is good news for drought improvement. It can however, lead to overly saturated conditions heading into early planting season, so this is something we will continue to watch evolve over the next few months. In the meantime, let us settle into what is likely to be an active winter and hopefully a restoration of soil moisture across Ohio.
