Winter So Far
Now that we have completed two months of meteorlogical winter, it is time for an early February check in. Last time, we discuss the main climate signals we were watching heading into the winter season. With cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean at play, this “La Niña” pattern was expected to provide a wave-like jet stream flow across the United States and Canada, with colder and stormier than average conditions across the nothern U.S. and warmer and less stormy conditions across the south. While this scenario usually brings wetter than average conditions to the Ohio Valley, we mentioned other factors at play (in the tropics and Arctic) that influence the weather over shorter timescales. This has been the case so far this winter, with overall cooler than normal conditions but not as much precipitation as expected despite snowier than normal conditions with an active Arctic pattern. Let’s dive into some of the numbers.
Overall, temperatures for December 1, 2025 – January 31, 2026 were below normal (Figure 1). Differences compared to the long-term average (1991-2020) ranged from 2°F below normal in south central Ohio up to 5-7°F below normal in parts of northeast Ohio. This was not without some warm spells however. In fact, southern Ohio flirted with 70-degree highs on December 28 and January 9. However, the extended extreme cold spell from late January following heavy snow and ice into the first of Febraury is one for the record books. The table below shows a few selected locations and their coldest daily minimum temperature for the week of January 25-31, 2026. Many locations experienced their coldest winter temperatures since 1994. Other locations tied or broke records of the longest consecutive nights with lows below zero.
Liquid-equivalent precipitation (rain + melted snow/ice equivalents) for winter so far ranges from about 2 inches in northwest Ohio, to more than 5 inches in parts of southern and eastern Ohio (Figure 2a). Higher totals have occurred in the Lake Effect regions of northeast Ohio. Still, this is still below normal for much of Ohio (Figure 2b). Snowfall has been heavy across western Ohio (Figure 2c), where upwards of 300-400% of normal snow has fallen (widespread 20-30 inches of snow for the season) (Figure 3d).
Current Conditions
Recall, we ended 2025 with D3-extreme drought conditions across much of northwest Ohio. Given the bitter cold temperatures and overall lack of precipitation this winter, we have not seen much change in our drought depiction. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Report, drought is still very much present across northwest Ohio (Figure 3). Approximately 17% of Ohio remains in drought (D1-D3), with just over 8% in D3-extreme drought. Even before freezing up the last couple of weeks, rivers, streams, farm ponds, and reserviors were running well below normal for this time of year and soil moisture is still lacking. For the latest drought conditions and agricultural resources, please visit our Drought Conditions and Resources page or the State Climate Office of Ohio.
Short-term Outlook
For those that have seen the movie Grumpy Old Men (1993), you may recall the opening scene with Irving Berlin’s Heat Wave (written in 1933 for the Broadway musical As Thousands Cheer and sung by Ethel Waters); “We're having a heat wave, a tropical heat wave…” While not the same context, this week’s temperatures will feel much warmer. In fact, we may squeak above freezing for southern Ohio on Tuesday and again on Friday. However, in both instances, additional snowfall and/or a light wintry mix is possible. Tuesday’s system will affect Cincinnati to Marietta with 1-4 inches of snow and lighter amounts north to about I-70. The clipper on Friday (Feb. 6) may pack a punch for northern and northeastern Ohio and bears watching. After each of these brief warm-ups, temperatures will drop behind the fronts back into the 20s with overnight lows in the single digits. The current National Weather Service precipitation forecast shows light liquid-equivalent precipitation totals between 0.01 - 0.50 inches over the next seven days (Figure 4).
The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for the period of February 9 - 15, 2026 and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center show near to below normal temperatures and near normal precipitation are probable (Figure 5). There are signs in the long-range models that this cold, wintry pattern will break down by mid-month, bringing warmer Pacific air into the region. Climatology for this period indicates a normal high-temperature range of 35-42°F, a low-temperature range of 20-25°F, and weekly total precipitation of 0.55 to 0.70 inches.
Long-term Outlook
The outlook for February from the Climate Prediction Center, released on January 31, 2026 shows a higher probability for below normal temperatures for the month along with equal chances of above, below, or near normal precipitation (Figure 6). As stated above, after a cold first half of February, the back end of the month looks to moderate temperature-wise, with more opportunities for precipitation. The figure indicates that below‑normal temperatures are probable in Ohio with an equal chance for above, below, or near normal precipitation.
Finally, the three-month outlook for February – April 2026 from the Climate Prediction Center, released on January 15, 2026 shows equal chances for above, below, or near normal temperatures with a higher probability for above normal precipitation (Figure 7). This pattern is still highly reflective of a weakening La Niña, though confidence is not strong given the lack of La Niña’s influence on this winter’s weather so far. Though not the time to panic, concern for additional drought impacts will grow if we head into the spring season without a significant period of soil moisture recharge over the next couple of months.