Meteorological winter has come to a close as we transition now to spring in the Ohio Valley. Looking back at winter 2025-26, it was cold, with our winter average temperatures ending 2-5°F below normal (1991-2020) for December – February. It was also quite snowy across much of western, southern and eastern Ohio. However, this did not tranlate into overall wetter conditions, as precipitation ran well below normal (Figure 1).
In fact, northwest and southeast Ohio counties generally received lass than half of what is expected over this three-month period. Thus, the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Report shows that  17% of Ohio remains in drought (D1-D3), with just over 8% in D3-extreme drought. Water impacts remain the major concern, with very low reservoir levels, farm ponds, and river flows. Delphos ordered a Phase 1 water conservation order on February 3, 2026, as its reservoir fell to 50% capacity. For the latest drought conditions and agricultural resources, please visit our Drought Conditions and Resources page or the State Climate Office of Ohio.
Outlook
A major pattern shift is setting up for the first week of March. After a pesky system dropped snow sleet, and freezing rain across portions of central and southern Ohio on Monday morning, a strong warming trend is expected this week. Highs on Tuesday will top out in the 40s and 50s, before much warmer air surges into the region by the end of the week. Highs will likely push into the mid-60s to mid-70s for many areas of Ohio on Friday and Saturday, before cooling off again by the end of the weekend. However, this weather shift is also opening the pathway for ample moisture from the Gulf to surge northward from Arkansas to Ohio. Periods of rain showers, occasionally moderate to heavy, will develop on Tuesday and continue off and on through the weekend. The current National Weather Service precipitation forecast shows -5 inches (north-to-south) over the next seven days (Figure 2).
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The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for the period of March 10 – 16, 2026 and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center show probabilities leaning toward warmer and wetter than average conditions (Figure 3). Climatology for this period indicates a normal high-temperature range of 42-49°F, a low-temperature range of 26-31°F, and weekly total precipitation of 0.65 to 0.95 inches.
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