Climate Summary
March certainly brought a lot of “lion-type” weather to Ohio. Severe weather occurred on March 7, 11, 15, 22, and 26 including large hail and tornadoes, and a strong non-thundersorm related wind event on March 13 carried with it widespread maximum wind gusts of 75-85 mph and Ohio’s first Blowing Dust Advisory. This active pattern also brought ample precipitation to the Buckeye State (Figure 1). Most of southern Ohio has received 6-10 inches of rainall during the month of March, which is 1.75-3 times normal. Lighter precipitation, less than 4 inches, has fallen across northern Ohio, but this is above average and has fallen on very dry conditions in northwest Ohio.
With rain in northwest Ohio, the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Report shows that the percentage of Ohio in drought conditions has dropped to just over 14% now (down from more than 70% in October), with less than 4% still in D3-extreme drought. Extremely low reservoir levels and farm ponds are showing signs of recovery, and soil moisture and stream flows have shown modest improvements aross the region. On the other hand, far southern Ohio (e.g., Lawrence County) is now showing signs of drying over the last couple of months. For the latest drought conditions and agricultural resources, please visit our Drought Conditions and Resources page or the State Climate Office of Ohio.
Soils
Looking at the latest daily average 2-inch soil temperature and moisture values from the Ohio Mesonet shows soils are warming up across the state (Figure 2). Daily maximum 2-inch soils temperatures (not shown) are starting to peak in the low 60s across southern Ohio due to increasing sun angle and warmer weather. Soil moisture conditions mirror the precipitation with saturated soils common across central and southern Ohio, while drier soils remain in place across the north central and northwestern counties.
Outlook
Our active pattern looks to continue into early April. Warm, breezy conditions are likely on Tuesday with temperatures soaring well into the 70s for much of Ohio. This will also lead to instability in the atmosphere with showers and storms forming by afternoon and evening, especially across the northern half of Ohio. A cold front moving in from the west will trigger the risk of severe weather again in northwest Ohio. This front will stall out across central Ohio on Wednesday, with showers around. Highs will only reach the upper 40s north but push into the upper 60s to low 70s across southern counties. The front will lift back north on Thursday, with another strong push of 70s and 80s across all of the state. Periods of showers and storms will continue for Thursday through Saturday, with a stronger cold front pushing the unsettled weather out of the region on Sunday. Temperatures will drop back into the 40s and 50s on the backside of this front for Sunday and Monday. The current National Weather Service precipitation forecast shows precipitation totals between 0.5-2 inches across southern Ohio, and 2-3.5 inches across northern Ohio over the next seven days (Figure 3). While upper 30s are possible early on Thursday morning across far northern Ohio, no widespread frost or freeze conditions are expected over this period.
The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for the period of April 7 – 13, 2026 and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center show probabilities leaning toward warmer than average with near normal to a slight chance of below normal precipitation (Figure 4). Climatology for this period indicates a normal high-temperature range of 55-60°F, a low-temperature range of 35-40°F, and weekly total precipitation of 0.65-1 inch.
