Climate Summary
Wet spring conditions have continued across northern Ohio the last couple of weeks. Portions of Defiance, Fulton, Henry, and Williams Counties have picked up more 8 inches of rain in April (Figure 1), with widespread 6-8 inch observations for many areas. April precipitation is running 125-300% of normal through April 26, 2026, across all of northern Ohio. After 239 consecutive days, northern Ohio is now dought free according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. Meanwhile, rapidly developing drought conditions have progressed across southern counties, where only 10-50% of normal April precipitation has been observed. This has led to an introduction of D0-abnormally dry and D1-moderate drought (2% of Ohio) in Ohio on the U.S. Drought Monitor. The combination of very warm temperatures (7-10°F above normal in April) and windy conditions has significantly dried the surface. Soil moisture values have decreased (Figure 2 – right) and river flows are well below historical norms. For the latest drought conditions and agricultural resources, please visit our Drought Conditions and Resources page or the State Climate Office of Ohio.
Soils
The latest observations from the Ohio Mesonet show that two-inch daily-average soil temperatures range from the mid 50s Fahrenheit across northern Ohio to the low-to-mid 60s across southern Ohio (Figure 2). Daily oscillations in soil temperature vary from the mid-40s (50s) at night to the mid-60s (low 80s) during the day across northern (southern) Ohio. Soil moisture has risen significantly across northern counties in response to the ample rainfall, while our sensors acrpss southern Ohio have dropped below the wilting point (~15%) in many locations. Â
Outlook
Spring conditions have been volatile across the Central and Midwest U.S., and this pattern is likely to continue over the next few weeks. A strong cold front will provide opportunities for showers and storms, some severe, across Ohio on Monday night through Wednesday. The heaviest rainfall will be focused across western Ohio. Overall drier conditions work into the region for Thursday through Sunday, but a few scattered showers and storms cannot be ruled out during that period either. We are starting the week out warm with highs in the 70s on Monday and Tuesday (April 27-28), but temperatures will get cooler throughout the week. Highs on Wednesday through Saturday are expected to range from the mid-50s to mid-60s north to south, with mornings starting out in the upper 30s to mid-40s. Patchy frost is not entirely out of the question for the lowest valleys across the state. The current National Weather Service precipitation forecast shows precipitation totals between 0.50 and 3 inches, with the highest totals in southwest Ohio (Figure 3). If this forecast pans out, this will help ease the growing drought concerns across the south.
The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for the period of May 4 – 10, 2026 and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center show probabilities leaning toward colder than normal with near normal precipitation (Figure 4). Climatology for this period indicates a normal high-temperature range of 66-70°F, a low-temperature range of 44-49°F, and weekly total precipitation of 0.85 – 1.15 inch.
