Climate Summary
According to National Centers for Environmental Information (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/ access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/), April 2026 ranks as the warmest April on record since modern records began (1895 – present). Average temperatures were 6-9°F above normal for the month. The March-April is also ranked as the warmest start to spring on record. Over the last 30 days, much of western and northern Ohio have received 4-8 inches of rain (Figure 1). This is 100-200% of normal. Conversely, much of southern Ohio has only received 25-75% of normal precipitation since mid-April. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates about 2% of the state is still in D1-moderate drought conditions, focused on southern Adams, Scioto, and Lawrence Counties. For the latest drought conditions and agricultural resources, please visit our Drought Conditions and Resources page or the State Climate Office of Ohio.
Figure 1) left) Total precipitation (inches) and right) Percent of Normal Precipitation (%) for the period April 11 – May 10, 2026. Figures courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (https://mrcc.purdue.edu/).
Soils
The latest observations from the Ohio Mesonet show that two-inch daily-average soil temperatures range from the upper 50s Fahrenheit across northern Ohio to the mid 60s across southern Ohio (Figure 2). Soil moisture has stayed consistent across northern counties in response to the ample rainfall, with widespread field capacity conditions (>30%). Our southern locations in Jackson and Piketon indicate growing drought concerns in this part of Ohio.
Figure 2) Daily average left) Two-inch soil temperature (°F) and right) Two-inch soil moisture (percent by volume) on May 10, 2026, from the Ohio Mesonet (https://ohmesonet.org).
Outlook
Despite the record warmth in April, cool conditions have settled across Ohio through the first 10 days of May. In fact, many counties in southern and northern Ohio reached the upper 20s to low 30s during the first week of May. Frost is possible once again on the morning of May 12, before temperatures trend much warmer by the weekend. Highs on Tuesday through Thursday (May 12-14) will range from the upper 50s to low 70s (north to south), then temperatures warm into the 80s over the weekend. Showers and storms are likely on Tuesday night and Wednesday, with scattered showers possible over the weekend. The current National Weather Service precipitation forecast shows precipitation totals between 0.5-1 inch across northern Ohio with lighter amount south over the next 7 days (Figure 3).
Figure 3) Total precipitation forecast valid from 8pm ET Monday May 11, – 8pm ET Monday May 18, 2026. Figure courtesy of the National Weather Service – Wilmington, Ohio (https://www.weather.gov/iln/).
The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for the period of May 19 – 25, 2026 and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center show probabilities leaning toward warmer than normal with above normal precipitation (Figure 4). Climatology for this period indicates a normal high-temperature range of 70-75°F, a low-temperature range of 49-53°F, and weekly total precipitation of 0.85 – 1.15 inch.
Figure 4) Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Outlook valid for May 19 - 25, 2026 for left) temperatures and right) precipitation. Colors represent the probability of below, normal, or above normal conditions.