2026 Corn Yield Forecast for Ohio as of August 25

By the end of August 2026, the USDA Crop Progress & Condition report indicated that about 85% of Ohio's corn acreage had reached the dough stage (R4), with close to 40% already dented (R5). Both indicators ranked slightly ahead of 2025 and the 5-year average for this time of the year. For most of the 2026 season, about 50% of Ohio’s corn has been ranked as good and 10-15% as excellent.

The most recent simulation of the 2026 end-of-season corn yield potential and crop staging was completed on August 25, with some optimism for this end of the season. This work uses the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model in collaboration with researchers, agronomists, and extension educators across the Corn Belt. The approach uses local crop data, soil types, and real-time weather as input variables. These forecasts can assist in making management, logistics, and marketing decisions in the crop season.

The forecast covers 43 locations across the Corn Belt region, including Custar (Northwest), South Charleston (Western), and Wooster (Northeast), Ohio. Table 1 and Figure 1 summarize the projections available as of Aug 25, 2026.

Table 1. Simulations of 2026 end-of-season corn yield potential (Yp) and crop stage on August 25, Ohio.

Based on the current forecast, projections show (Figure 1):

• A 92% probability of NEAR long-term yield potential average for Custar, OH.
• A 91% probability of NEAR long-term yield potential average for South Charleston, OH.
• A 36% probability of ABOVE long-term yield potential average for Wooster, OH

Take Aways

The projected results for Ohio show some optimism for higher yields in Wooster in the Northeast and neutral for South Charleston (Western region) and for Custar (Northwest region). These projections align with the recent weather conditions, leading to adequate moisture levels across most of the state now that corn is in the grain-fill stage and showing potential for maintaining or improving yields.  

Corn begins to scale down its water use as it progresses in the grain-fill stages (see Crop Water Use in Corn). Adequate solar radiation, temperatures, and precipitation during the remaining grain-fill period determine final yield outputs. These forecasts do not consider other yield-limiting factors such as stand issues, storm damage, replanting, disease, or nutrient losses. Likewise, results deviate with varying planting dates and/or hybrid maturities. Yield forecasts are not field-specific and represent an average yield estimate for a given location and its surrounding region. More forecasts will be made available as they come; this article summarizes the approach used for this work.

How does this yield forecast compare to 2026 Ohio crop tour’s projections?

• Field Leader Tour Average: 207 bu/acre overall (averaging 201 bu/acre on the North Leg and 212 bu/acre on the South Leg). Learn more about these results here (LINK).
• Pro Farmer Tour Average: 180 bu/acre overall, which is down 3% compared to the 2025 tour average of 186 bu/acre and below the 3-year average of 184 bu/acre. Learn more about these results here (LINK).

References

Grassini, P., Andrade, J., Aramburu, F., Yang, H., Brhel, J., Coulter, J., Licht, M., Archontoulis, S., Singh, M., Ortez, O., Quinn, D., & Carcedo, A. (2026). 2026 Corn Yield Forecasts as of Aug. 25. UNL Nebraska CropWatch. https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2026-corn-yield-forecasts-aug-25/

Grassini, P., Andrade, J., Aramburu, F., Yang, H., Brhel, J., Coulter, J., Licht, M., Archontoulis, S., Singh, M., Ortez, O., Quinn, D., & Carcedo, A. (2026). 2026 Corn Yield Forecasts: Approach and Interpretation of Results. UNL Nebraska CropWatch. https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2026-corn-yield-forecasts-approach-and-interpretation-results/