The last USDA Crop Progress & Condition report (week ending 8/25/24) indicated that 90% of Ohio's corn acreage had reached the dough stage (R4), 47% of corn was dented (R5), and 9% was mature (R6). All of it is well ahead of last year’s and the 5-year average for this time of the year.
Using the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model in collaboration with faculty and extension personnel from several partner universities, a new simulation of 2024 end-of-season corn yield potential and crop staging was completed on August 27. Forecasts help researchers, growers, and industry stakeholders to make management, logistics, and marketing decisions during the crop season. The forecast covered 43 locations across the Corn Belt, including Custar (Northwest), South Charleston (Western), and Wooster (Northeast), Ohio. Table 1 and Figure 1 summarize the current results.
Table 1. Simulations of 2024 end-of-season corn yield potential and crop stage on August 27, Ohio. Adapted from Grassini et al., 2024.
|
Location |
Long-term average yield potential (bu/ac)§ |
Range of Yp forecasts as of Aug. 27 (bu/ac)¶ 25th |
Range of Yp forecasts as of Aug. 27 (bu/ac)¶ 75th |
The probability (%) of 2024 yield to be: Below (relative to the long-term Yp)† |
The probability (%) of 2024 yield to be: Near (relative to the long-term Yp)† |
The Probability (%) of 2024 yield to be: Above (relative to the long-term Yp)† |
Simulated Crop Stage |
|
Custar 108-day hybrid May 17 planting |
231 |
223 |
233 |
0% |
100% |
0% |
R5, Dent |
|
South Charleston 112-day hybrid May 12 planting |
235 |
205 |
214 |
62% |
38% |
0% |
R5, Dent |
|
Wooster 106-day hybrid May 22 planting |
236 |
255 |
275 |
0% |
38% |
62% |
R4, Dough |
§ Long-term (last 20-plus years) potential yield at each location and surrounding area.
¶ Range of forecasted 2024 potential yields based on average planting date in 2024, indicating the potential yields in the 25th and 75th percentile of the potential yield distribution (associated with respective adverse and favorable weather scenarios during the rest of the season).
† Probability of obtaining a 2024 yield below (<-10%), near (±10%), and above (>10%) than the long-term potential yield at each location; or <-5%, ±5%, and >5% at each irrigated location, respectively.
This article summarizes the methodologies used to forecast corn phenology and yield. Based on current forecasts, preliminary projections show (Figure 1):
- A 100% probability (+/-) of near average yield potential for Custar, OH.
- A 62% probability (+/-) of below average yield potential for South Charleston, OH.
- A 62% probability (+/-) of above average yield potential for Wooster, OH.
|
Figure 1. On the left figure, simulated developmental stage for rainfed corn at each location (left figure). R1: silking; R2: blister; R3: milk; R4: dough; R5: dent; R6: physiological maturity. Summary |
Adequate solar radiation, temperatures, and precipitation during the rest of the grain fill period will determine the final outputs (especially grain weight). These yield forecasts do not consider other yield-limiting factors such as crop stand issues, storm damage, replanting, disease, or nutrient losses. Likewise, results can deviate with varying planting dates or hybrid maturities. Yield forecasts are not field-specific and represent an average yield estimate for a given location and surrounding area.
References
Grassini, P., Andrade, J., Merlos, F., Yang, H., Rees, J., Coulter, J., Licht, M., Archontoulis, S., Ciampitti, I., Crawford, J., Singh, M., Ortez, O., & Quinn, D. (2024). 2024 Corn Yield Forecasts as of Aug. 27. UNL Nebraska CropWatch. Available from: https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2024/2024-corn-yield-forecasts-aug-27
Grassini, P., Andrade, J., Merlos, F., Yang, H., Rees, J., Coulter, J., Licht, M., Archontoulis, S., Ciampitti, I., Crawford, J., Singh, M., & Ortez, O. (2024). 2024 Corn Yield Forecasts: Approach and Interpretation of Results. UNL Nebraska CropWatch. Available from: https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2024/2024-corn-yield-forecasts-approach-and-interpretation-results