As we move into harvest season, everyone wants to know what is up with the weather. It does look like there could be some delays in harvest this fall especially west of Ohio. However, it does not look real significant. Historic autumns coming out of big El Nino events are usually warmer than normal, a slightly later freeze and rainfall that goes from drier than normal to normal or slightly wetter than normal why end of fall.
It looks like lots of fall swings are in store. However, for the remainder of September, even though we will have bursts of cooler temperatures we still expect temperatures to average 1-3F above normal.
Rainfall is more complicated as there are indications of a slightly wetter period coming for the second half of the month around a high pressure system in the Southeast U.S. Therefore, we expect rainfall to average from 0.50 inches below normal to 1.00 inches above normal for the rest of the month of September.
October looks to return to drier than normal for the first half of the month with temperatures possibly cooler a few degrees below normal.
Again the trend into November is still preferred warmer than normal with precipitation becoming variable.
Finally, based on the ending of El Nino with a chance of La Nina by winter, indications are the first freeze would arrive from normal to a week late this year. Typically first freezes are in the Oct. 10-20 range.
You can see the latest NOAA/NWS/OHRFC 16-day rainfall outlook in the attached document: Rainfall Outlook. Normal rainfall is just over 1 inch for the period.