The trend this spring has been on the warmer and wetter side except for a drier period in the last 30 days in parts of the state. The images below show departures from normal over the region the last 30, 60 and 90 days at 4 km resolution.
After a very warm March we have been running behind on the growing degree days as provided by the NOAA Midwest Climate Center... http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/cliwatch/special_topics/agriculture.html#mgdd . The area from Illinois through Indiana into Ohio has been most impacted by growing degrees days. Four inch soil temperatures are mostly in the 50s.
We have been talking about the rapid transition away from a strong El Nino toward La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. This is occurring. The problem is when these rapid transitions occur, the skill of our climate models decreases. In addition, spring is the lowest skill of the year for weather and climate models. Saying that, it appears there are changes in the temperature and precipitation forecasts for May!
The good news is freeze season is over. However, some very patchy frost is possible May 15/16 in low lying areas in northern Ohio but nothing that will be of impact.
The outlook for summer remains with above normal temperatures and and turn to drier weather. In fact, the likely scenario is that we will do a classic abrupt switch from damp to very warm and dry in very short order somewhere between late May to late June.
The outlook for summer remains with above normal temperatures and and turn to drier weather. In fact, the likely scenario is that we will do a classic abrupt switch from damp to very warm and dry in very short order somewhere between late May to late June.
