We have been talking about the rapid transition away from a strong El Nino toward La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. This is occurring. The problem is when these rapid transitions occur, the skill of our climate models decreases. In addition, spring is the lowest skill of the year for weather and climate models. Saying that, it appears there are changes in the temperature and precipitation forecasts for May!
The outlook for summer remains with above normal temperatures and and turn to drier weather. In fact, the likely scenario is that we will do a classic abrupt switch from damp to very warm and dry in very short order somewhere between late May to late June.