Rapid Transition from El Nino to La Nina Continues

4 inch soil temperature
The trend this spring has been on the warmer and wetter side except for a drier period in the last 30 days in parts of the state. The images below show departures from normal over the region the last 30, 60 and 90 days at 4 km resolution.
 
After a very warm March we have been running behind on the growing degree days as provided by the NOAA Midwest Climate Center... http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/cliwatch/special_topics/agriculture.html#mgdd . The area from Illinois through Indiana into Ohio has been most impacted by growing degrees days. Four inch soil temperatures are mostly in the 50s.

We have been talking about the rapid transition away from a strong El Nino toward La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. This is occurring. The problem is when these rapid transitions occur, the skill of our climate models decreases. In addition, spring is the lowest skill of the year for weather and climate models. Saying that, it appears there are changes in the temperature and precipitation forecasts for May!
 
The dryness from April appears to shift north into the Great Lakes allowing a boundary to sit in the region more often than not the next several weeks.  Therefore, it appears May will likely now stay on the wetter side and impact planting that has not been done especially in southern and western areas of Ohio. Overall we have revised May from warmer and drier to normal temperatures and wetter than normal.
 
The outlook through May 22 calls for temperatures below normal and rainfall normal to above normal. The outlook from May 23 through May 31 calls for temperatures above normal and rainfall normal to above normal. Normal rainfall is about an inch per week.
 
Dates                             Weather Element    Outlook
May 10 - May 22             Temperatures         -1F to -3F
May 10 - May 22             Rainfall                  1.5-2.5 inches north / 2-4 inches south
May 23 - May 31             Temperatures          +1F to +3F
May 23 - May 31             Rainfall                  1.0-1.5 inches
 
The good news is freeze season is over. However, some very patchy frost is possible May 15/16 in low lying areas in northern Ohio but nothing that will be of impact.

The outlook for summer remains with above normal temperatures and and turn to drier weather. In fact, the likely scenario is that we will do a classic abrupt switch from damp to very warm and dry in very short order somewhere between late May to late June.
 
30-day Percent of Normal Precipitation
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
90-day Percent of Normal Precipitation
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
60-day Percent of Normal Precipitation
4 inch soil temperature
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
Growing Degree Days
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Crop Observation and Recommendation Network

C.O.R.N. Newsletter is a summary of crop observations, related information, and appropriate recommendations for Ohio crop producers and industry. C.O.R.N. Newsletter is produced by the Ohio State University Extension Agronomy Team, state specialists at The Ohio State University and the Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center (OARDC). C.O.R.N. Newsletter questions are directed to Extension and OARDC state specialists and associates at Ohio State.

Author(s):