C.O.R.N. Newsletter

Increasing Variability In Rainfall

As summer nears, the weather pattern supports an increasing risk of big differences in rainfall totals from too wet to too dry.

Issue: 2018-16
Warm Weather Continues...High Rainfall Variability

Above normal temperatures will continue for the rest of May. Unlike temperatures, rainfall will be very inconsistent with a tendency to be wetter than normal. Some areas of Ohio will receive flooding rain while other areas will struggle to receive an inch or perhaps less than a half inch of rain for the rest of the month. Uncertainty is high for where the flooding rains will occur and where the driest areas are. Runoff will also be highly uncertain the rest of May.

Issue: 2018-13
Decent Spring Planting Conditions Ahead

A progressive weather pattern will continue over the next 2-3 weeks. This will allow for periods of dry conditions to be mixed with periods of wet conditions. This week should see many dry hours to allow for planting to be hit hard. While a cold and damp April put things behind schedule, we will continue to see things catching up to normal with mild and drier conditions.

The outlook for the rest of May is slightly above normal temperatures with rainfall slightly above normal north and slightly below normal south.

Issue: 2018-12
What a difference a month makes!

After a cold and wet April, May is shaping to have temperatures normal or slightly warmer than normal with rainfall near normal.

Except for rainfall later this week (with best chances north of I-70) rainfall will be at or below normal for the first half of May. The exception will be the northern tier of counties in Ohio which should at least get normal rainfall maybe a bit above.

It does appear the second half of May will turn somewhat wetter which should cause May to average out the drier and wetter patterns to near normal rainfall.

Issue: 2018-11
Some improvement for the next 2 weeks

Air and soil temperatures remain below normal across Ohio with most soil temperatures below the critical 50 degree level. There is a risk of some frost this Thursday morning and some frost and near freeze conditions this weekend especially north of I-70. This will keep pressure on soil temperatures warming too fast.

Issue: 2018-10
Pattern Favors Only Slow Improvement - Challenging Weather to linger throughout April!

The expected cold and wet weather pattern for spring that has been forecast since December continues. There will be some relief this week after a cold start to the week with temperatures 10 degrees below normal we will switch and see temperatures by the end of the week a good 10+ degrees above normal but when average out through Sunday April 15, we will return to about average temperatures for the week. Drying is expected as well through Friday with only minor precipitation events but another rain event is expected this weekend.

Issue: 2018-08
Spring Planting and Summer Growing Outlook

La Nina, cooling of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean waters, remains in place and is classified as a weak La Nina. This means many other things will ultimately impact our weather and climate since it is weak but it will contribute to our pattern. Indications are this could linger into spring and possibly summer before ending. Regardless of when it ends, it tends to impact weather patterns in the atmosphere longer, sometimes up to three to six months later. So there will be a contribution to our climate pattern into at least the planting season if not growing season.

Issue: 2018-05
Winter has seen wild swings in the weather

The winter has seen wild swings in the weather and climate from cold to warm to cold.

The outlook for February calls for this wild swing pattern to continue with periods of cold and mild along with periods of wet, snow and dry. The end result should be temperatures slightly colder than normal for February and precipitation at or above normal. Over the next two weeks precipitation liquid equivalent should average 1.5-2.5 inches over Ohio. Normal is about 1 inch in this period. See attached graphic for details.

Issue: 2018-03
Wet Pattern Likely Into Next Spring!

The wet pattern arrived this fall and continues. It has resulted in flooding and harvest delays.

Issue: 2017-39
Good harvest weather this week with worsening harvest weather next week

Temperatures into November: The warmer than normal weather pattern will continue. However, it appears we will get a burst of colder weather next week. Confidence in the temperature forecast is high.

Precipitation: We will be slowly transitioning from the drier first half of fall to a wetter pattern over the next 1-2 months that will persist into next spring. Lake effect precipitation will be increasing starting next week in northern and northeastern Ohio. Confidence in the rainfall forecast is moderate.

Issue: 2017-35